Add `BetaGeoBetaBinomModel` #922

ColtAllen · 2024-08-11T18:12:59Z

Description

The BG/BB model is for non-contractual purchase opportunities across discrete time periods; a good example would be sporting events.

This PR is a draft because I still need to add docstrings and debug the distribution_new_customer methods, but I could also use some assistance with a broadcasting issue I'm encountering with the logp method (error trace provided below). I also can't persist a model at all until either model configs support pm.Deterministic, or a different default model setup is used (see issue below).

Related Issue

Closes Add BetaGeoBetaBinomModel #176
Related to Refactor logp in BG/BB to remove Scan #703, Closed-Form PMFs for PPCs #878

Checklist

Checked that the pre-commit linting/style checks pass
Included tests that prove the fix is effective or that the new feature works
Added necessary documentation (docstrings and/or example notebooks)
If you are a pro: each commit corresponds to a relevant logical change

Modules affected

MMM
CLV

Type of change

📚 Documentation preview 📚: https://pymc-marketing--922.org.readthedocs.build/en/922/

* add scaling into lift test method * test scaling methods * test change of MMM likelihood * link up beta_channel parameters * change name to sigma * reorganize and edit * closes #406 * address the feedback in docstrings * add more to docstring * format the docstring * be verbose for future devs * be explicit for the column max values * incorporate the feedback * hide cells and add to intro * add conclusion * switch to header 2 * run notebook through * move the types together * separate model estimated from empirical * fix typos

* drop python 3.9 * try python 3.12 * undo try python 3.12

* improve nb * rm warnings and add link to lifetimes quickstart * address comments * feedback part 3 * remove warnings manually

* add more info to the notebook * hide plots code * fix plot y labels * fix plot outputs and remove model build * improve final note probability plots * address comments * use quickstart dataset * feedback part 3 * remowe warnings manually * feedback part 4

* improve mmm docs init * add more code examples to docstrings * minor improvemeents * typo * better phrasing * add thomas suggestion

* move fixtures to conftest * docstrings and moved set_model_fit to conftest * fixed pandas quickstart warnings * revert to MockModel and add ParetoNBD support * quickstart edit for issue 609 * notebook edit

remove ruff E501 ignore

updates: - [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.3.5 → v0.3.7](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.3.5...v0.3.7) Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com> Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* fix potential bugs * minor improvements * remove rule for nb * fix test * improve tests syntax * use stacklevel 2 for warnings * use stacklevel 1 for warnings as they are used in public methods * ignore B904 * undo change * ricardos feedback * use fit_posterior * Update pymc_marketing/clv/models/gamma_gamma.py Co-authored-by: Ricardo Vieira <[email protected]> * last fix XD --------- Co-authored-by: Ricardo Vieira <[email protected]>

* notebook opening and imports * model definition markdown * Data Load Notebook section * WIP model fitting section * added notebook to docs directory * notebook edits and graph code * ppc section and nb cleanup * demz sampling and WIP plotting * WIP predictive plots * WIP heatmap plots * predictive plots * WIP covariates and nbqa-ruff edits * covariate section * plot additions * fig sizes * remove model file

…book (#651) * add spaces, increase indentation, and fix number order * explicit with 6

* Creating plot waterfall Co-Authored-By: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]> * requested changes * pre-commit --------- Co-authored-by: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

Databricks should have a lower-case b.

updates: - [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.1 → v0.4.2](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.1...v0.4.2) - [github.com/pre-commit/mirrors-mypy: v1.9.0 → v1.10.0](pre-commit/mirrors-mypy@v1.9.0...v1.10.0) Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* support for negative values and dates (if used) * fix terrible spelling * test dates in coords * cover numpy objects * consolidate the tests

* deprecations and moving files * Update UML Diagrams * change the imports in notebooks * push up the code / test changes. need to run * remove _get_\w*_function tests * rerun the tvp notebook * remove stale test * move away from string initialization * change the tvp media example

* allow register and use custom transform * add to the example block

updates: - [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.6.1 → v0.6.2](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.6.1...v0.6.2) - [github.com/pre-commit/mirrors-mypy: v1.11.1 → v1.11.2](pre-commit/mirrors-mypy@v1.11.1...v1.11.2) Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]> Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* add table * sync index * empty * improvements

* nb init * add param stability * crps init * add crps to package * make mypy happy * clean * relax req * update path * add crps test * first iteration * improvements * improve tests * improve tests * improve references * feedback 1 * add examples

…sets of channels (#968)

…ocs (#992) * Changed pt=pt to pt_lib = None to avoid showing full module path in docs * Changed pt to pt_lib inside calculate_lift_measurements_from_curve

* push up some linear-trend work I had * image for the documentation * start the slopes at t=0 * additional checks at init * import at mmm module * update the image * Move to reference section * Move coords to single line * Add hierarchical trend example * add image for the example * migrate to pydantic * update images after seed * Correct the latex * fix check from tests

updates: - [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.6.2 → v0.6.3](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.6.2...v0.6.3) Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

ricardoV94

Checking the error now, but left some comments in the code after skimming through it. Also the dev notebook is failing, I guess it is known, but flagging just in case

pymc_marketing/clv/models/beta_geo_beta_binom.py

ricardoV94 · 2024-09-03T20:59:55Z

@ColtAllen I pushed a commit that allows working with batch chain/draws samples in the _logp method. The tests test_expected_purchases and test_expected_probability_alive are now passing locally for me.

I had to lower the rtol because the test is using less data sample_data, but otherwise the values seem to agree nicely with the expectation.

Unrelated, the test test_distribution_new_customer seems to be failing, and it doesn't seem just a tolerance problem. Perhaps as the comment in the testcode says, you are missing some letters / parametrization?

ColtAllen · 2024-09-05T16:06:43Z

Thanks! I just need to finish the docstrings and we can get this merged. The dev notebook is only for testing right now, but I'll expand it into something worthy of adding to the docs in a separate PR.

Unrelated, the test test_distribution_new_customer seems to be failing, and it doesn't seem just a tolerance problem. Perhaps as the comment in the testcode says, you are missing some letters / parametrization?

Yes, after double-checking, delta and gamma were swapped in the test. This is now passing.

juanitorduz · 2024-09-05T20:18:37Z

thanks @ricardoV94 !

ColtAllen · 2024-09-10T21:32:47Z

Had to close this one due to the force push. Will be opening a new PR once ready for review.

juanitorduz · 2024-09-11T08:38:52Z

Had to close this one due to the force push. Will be opening a new PR once ready for review.

Fantastic! Thanks @ColtAllen

wd60622 and others added 30 commits April 2, 2024 15:07

Drop python 3.9 support (#615)

8590b45

* drop python 3.9 * try python 3.12 * undo try python 3.12

add lift tests check

27a55d5

Add more content to the Gamma-Gamma Notebook (#573)

f3ec2cf

* improve nb * rm warnings and add link to lifetimes quickstart * address comments * feedback part 3 * remove warnings manually

Improve MMM Docs (#612)

da9f025

* improve mmm docs init * add more code examples to docstrings * minor improvemeents * typo * better phrasing * add thomas suggestion

Fix clv plotting bugs and edits to Quickstart (#601)

38b55a2

* move fixtures to conftest * docstrings and moved set_model_fit to conftest * fixed pandas quickstart warnings * revert to MockModel and add ParetoNBD support * quickstart edit for issue 609 * notebook edit

[pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate (#616)

ffef5a6

improve coords matching (#623)

a151330

python 3.12 attempt (#618)

6f33cef

closes #520 (#621) dataset -> data

c40c8b8

mmm example notebook small fixes (#626)

ff937f4

Remove ruff E501 ignore (#619)

e2dba27

remove ruff E501 ignore

Update pypi.yml (dash change) (#633)

b777eb5

UP rule ruff (#635)

2be2f63

Add ruff RUF rules (#636)

582d2ed

Update version.txt (#640)

78964f0

[pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate (#642)

18d926c

Fix build badge (#645)

ce41f5f

Add downloads stats to README

818781a

add spaces, increase indentation, and fix number order to Pareto note…

7034e28

…book (#651) * add spaces, increase indentation, and fix number order * explicit with 6

Add link to new Pareto notebook (#649)

d531d0c

Plot Waterfall Components Decomposition (#631)

1c186f0

* Creating plot waterfall Co-Authored-By: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]> * requested changes * pre-commit --------- Co-authored-by: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

Update resources.md (#652)

b36b0ac

Databricks should have a lower-case b.

fix ylabel (#654)

ae6ae1d

Lift test fixes (#656)

a89bd93

* support for negative values and dates (if used) * fix terrible spelling * test dates in coords * cover numpy objects * consolidate the tests

wd60622 and others added 13 commits August 24, 2024 14:00

Register and allow custom transform for Prior class (#972)

0c90ba8

* allow register and use custom transform * add to the example block

Update pypi.yml (#975)

cc89b95

Added deprecation warning for method keyword (#974)

28b75c3

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]> Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

Improve and sync the README and landing page. (#978)

6c46d59

* add table * sync index * empty * improvements

fix the wrong trigger (#983)

3048a74

Media transformation class and different transformations based on sub…

f2318ae

…sets of channels (#968)

Changed pt=pt to pt_lib = None to avoid showing full module path in d…

2e2907a

…ocs (#992) * Changed pt=pt to pt_lib = None to avoid showing full module path in docs * Changed pt to pt_lib inside calculate_lift_measurements_from_curve

[pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate (#994)

292bd7c

updates: - [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.6.2 → v0.6.3](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.6.2...v0.6.3) Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

always push to main (#993)

4e2d722

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

ricardoV94 reviewed Sep 3, 2024

View reviewed changes

Vectorize _logp method of BetaGeoBetaBinomial model

8468576

ColtAllen and others added 2 commits September 4, 2024 07:29

Merge branch 'pymc-labs:main' into bgbb_model

6e0e2a2

fix test_distribution_new_customer

ae56d88

juanitorduz added this to the 0.9.0 milestone Sep 5, 2024

ulfaslak force-pushed the main branch 4 times, most recently from f9a38fd to 818ba39 Compare September 8, 2024 12:38

twiecki force-pushed the main branch from 35dc7f1 to 9f9c67f Compare September 10, 2024 15:25

ColtAllen closed this by deleting the head repository Sep 10, 2024

ColtAllen mentioned this pull request Sep 13, 2024

Add BetaGeoBetaBinomModel #1031

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Add `BetaGeoBetaBinomModel` #922

Add `BetaGeoBetaBinomModel` #922

ColtAllen commented Aug 11, 2024 •

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ricardoV94 commented Sep 3, 2024

ColtAllen commented Sep 5, 2024

juanitorduz commented Sep 5, 2024

ColtAllen commented Sep 10, 2024

juanitorduz commented Sep 11, 2024

Add BetaGeoBetaBinomModel #922

Add BetaGeoBetaBinomModel #922

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ColtAllen commented Aug 11, 2024 • edited by github-actions bot Loading

Description

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ricardoV94 commented Sep 3, 2024

ColtAllen commented Sep 5, 2024

juanitorduz commented Sep 5, 2024

ColtAllen commented Sep 10, 2024

juanitorduz commented Sep 11, 2024

Add `BetaGeoBetaBinomModel` #922

Add `BetaGeoBetaBinomModel` #922

ColtAllen commented Aug 11, 2024 •

edited by github-actions bot

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