Go script to benchmark the longevity of the direct ancestors of the first individual in a GEDCOM family tree file (i.e. me) against modal and median death ages for the United Kingdom for each ancestor's year of death. For all ancestors who died in years for which ONS statistics are available (i.e. 1841-2010), the diff from the modal and median death ages is calculated. An average is then calculated that weights each ancestor's diff based on their proximity to the first individual in the tree. i.e. the diffs for my grandparents have twice the weight of those of my great-grandparents, which in turn have twice the weight of those of my great-great-grandparents, etc. As the number of individuals doubles with each generation you go back, that means that collectively the diffs for a given generation carry the same weight as those for any another.
GEDCOM files (with a .ged extension) can be exported from a number of genealogy websites, such as ancestry.com. I gradually built my own tree over several months, and in my case I have 78 director ancestors who died in a year covered by the ONS statistics, stretching back seven generations (i.e. back to great-great-great-great-great-grandparents).
I previously implemented a simpler version of this in ruby that used a CSV generated from my GEDCOM file by Gramps, but this resulted in the information on generational proximity being lost. As the ruby GEDCOM libraries that I tried seemed like they themselves had passed on to a better place and seemed unable to read my .ged file without exploding, I looked at other languages and found a nice Go package that seemed to be actively maintained and did the job.
Historical data on UK mortality come in .csv files bundled with a statistical release of the UK's Office of National Statistics entitled Mortality in England and Wales: past and projected trends in average lifespan, published on 5 July 2022.
I had to manually tweak a couple of tiny details (e.g. header names) that weren't exactly consistent between the male and female files published by the ONS.
- Ignores leap years (i.e. assumes years are all 365 days long)
- The ONS stats are expressed in terms of years to the nearest two decimal points (e.g. "78.34"). I'm using floating point arithmetic to convert these into a number of days (as an integer), which makes these calculations slightly imprecise.
- Assumes a death date of 1 January where the dataset gives only a year
- Similarly, where only a month and a year are available, assumes the death occured on the 1st of that month
- Excludes ancestors for whom no birth or death year is available (a range of years is acceptable - e.g.
1905-1907). - Where a death date is recorded as a range of years, assumes that the death date is the day that falls halfway between the two
- Hardcoded to use UK death statistics for all ancestors. Apart from the amount of effort that'd be required in obtaining equivalent stats for other countries (assuming they even exist), trying to decide which country's statistics to apply to a given ancestor would be a nightmare. I guess in an ideal world you'd use whichever country they spent the most time in, but suffice to say this is rarely available. Even when locations are given for deaths, births, etc, these may omit the country entirely (e.g. only give a town/city) or use a range of different names (e.g. "England", "United Kingdom" and "UK").
By default the script just outputs the results in a human-readable format. The optional --csv flag can be passed with a desired filename in order to generate a .csv file in which all time durations are given as a number of days (which is easier for people to manipulate in Excel or whatever).
$ go run predict-death.go --tree-file tree.ged [--csv somefilename.csv]
Here's the cheerful result that I get using my own family tree:
$ go run predict-death.go --tree-file tree.ged
===========================================================================================
Longevity statistics for the direct ancestors of William Norman Gant
===========================================================================================
Stat Male Female Overall
Difference from Median Death Age 7 years 126 days 5 years 154 days 6 years 135 days
Difference from Modal Age at Death -4 years 148 days -4 years 226 days -4 years 188 days
===========================================================================================
Year Generations removed from subject Gender Age at death Median Death Age Diff Modal Death Age Diff Modal Death Age Median Death Age
1998 2 f 88 years 106 days +5 years 234 days +2 years 4 days 86 years 102 days 82 years 237 days
1993 2 m 78 years 16 days +1 years 279 days -1 years 89 days 79 years 105 days 76 years 102 days
1986 2 m 77 years 139 days +2 years 242 days +0 years 183 days 76 years 321 days 74 years 262 days
1983 3 f 94 years 27 days +13 years 210 days +9 years 144 days 84 years 248 days 80 years 182 days
1980 2 f 63 years 268 days -16 years 104 days -20 years 93 days 83 years 361 days 80 years 7 days
1966 3 m 81 years 6 days +9 years 101 days +5 years 346 days 75 years 25 days 71 years 270 days
1962 3 f 91 years 140 days +13 years 213 days +9 years 239 days 81 years 266 days 77 years 292 days
1952 3 f 79 years 325 days +3 years 107 days +0 years 63 days 79 years 262 days 76 years 218 days
1947 4 m 90 years 91 days +20 years 84 days +14 years 95 days 75 years 361 days 70 years 7 days
1946 3 m 59 years 60 days -11 years 27 days -17 years 221 days 76 years 281 days 70 years 87 days
1939 4 f 77 years 357 days +5 years 87 days +0 years 62 days 78 years 54 days 72 years 270 days
1935 4 m 78 years 239 days +10 years 247 days +3 years 17 days 75 years 222 days 67 years 357 days
1935 3 f 50 years 62 days -21 years 259 days -27 years 87 days 77 years 149 days 71 years 321 days
1932 3 m 61 years 183 days -5 years 262 days -13 years 335 days 75 years 153 days 67 years 80 days
1929 4 m 86 years 25 days +21 years 117 days +10 years 219 days 75 years 171 days 64 years 273 days
1926 4 f 82 years 129 days +11 years 305 days +5 years 283 days 76 years 211 days 70 years 189 days
1925 4 m 65 years 28 days +0 years 223 days -10 years 242 days 75 years 270 days 65 years 251 days
1923 3 m 54 years 294 days -11 years 103 days -20 years 355 days 75 years 284 days 66 years 32 days
1923 5 f 85 years 217 days +15 years 199 days +8 years 174 days 77 years 43 days 70 years 18 days
1922 4 f 86 years 13 days +17 years 160 days +8 years 273 days 77 years 105 days 68 years 218 days
1919 6 f 85 years 185 days +19 years 61 days +8 years 295 days 76 years 255 days 66 years 124 days
1918 5 f 89 years 335 days +30 years 244 days +13 years 306 days 76 years 29 days 59 years 91 days
1918 4 f 76 years 337 days +17 years 246 days +0 years 308 days 76 years 29 days 59 years 91 days
1911 5 m 84 years 207 days +24 years 328 days +10 years 255 days 73 years 317 days 59 years 244 days
1911 5 f 84 years 226 days +20 years 267 days +9 years 289 days 74 years 302 days 63 years 324 days
1910 4 m 73 years 308 days +13 years 108 days +1 years 268 days 72 years 40 days 60 years 200 days
1910 5 f 82 years 353 days +17 years 343 days +8 years 36 days 74 years 317 days 65 years 10 days
1909 5 f 89 years 132 days +26 years 27 days +14 years 216 days 74 years 281 days 63 years 105 days
1904 5 f 79 years 317 days +19 years 131 days +5 years 328 days 73 years 354 days 60 years 186 days
1904 5 m 76 years 345 days +21 years 13 days +5 years 218 days 71 years 127 days 55 years 332 days
1902 4 f 52 years 275 days -7 years 181 days -21 years 104 days 74 years 14 days 60 years 91 days
1901 4 f 67 years 74 days +8 years 111 days -6 years 207 days 73 years 281 days 58 years 328 days
1900 5 m 80 years 78 days +28 years 31 days +9 years 276 days 70 years 167 days 52 years 47 days
1899 5 f 74 years 150 days +17 years 165 days +1 years 362 days 72 years 153 days 56 years 350 days
1899 4 f 37 years 282 days -19 years 68 days -34 years 236 days 72 years 153 days 56 years 350 days
1899 5 m 65 years 184 days +13 years 214 days -5 years 38 days 70 years 222 days 51 years 335 days
1899 5 f 78 years 138 days +21 years 153 days +5 years 350 days 72 years 153 days 56 years 350 days
1898 5 f 86 years 26 days +27 years 326 days +13 years 209 days 72 years 182 days 58 years 65 days
1896 4 m 54 years 170 days +0 years 87 days -17 years 45 days 71 years 215 days 54 years 83 days
1895 5 m 74 years 253 days +22 years 27 days +3 years 337 days 70 years 281 days 52 years 226 days
1894 4 m 47 years 363 days -7 years 151 days -24 years 16 days 72 years 14 days 55 years 149 days
1894 5 m 66 years 209 days +11 years 60 days -5 years 170 days 72 years 14 days 55 years 149 days
1892 4 f 31 years 63 days -25 years 225 days -39 years 83 days 70 years 146 days 56 years 288 days
1891 5 f 63 years 349 days +8 years 298 days -5 years 202 days 69 years 186 days 55 years 51 days
1888 5 f 80 years 231 days +23 years 162 days +8 years 56 days 72 years 175 days 57 years 69 days
1888 4 m 71 years 332 days +19 years 84 days +2 years 289 days 69 years 43 days 52 years 248 days
1888 5 f 84 years 62 days +26 years 358 days +11 years 252 days 72 years 175 days 57 years 69 days
1885 6 m 80 years 287 days +30 years 145 days +11 years 222 days 69 years 65 days 50 years 142 days
1885 5 m 80 years 244 days +30 years 102 days +11 years 179 days 69 years 65 days 50 years 142 days
1883 5 f 76 years 300 days +22 years 311 days +3 years 103 days 73 years 197 days 53 years 354 days
1881 5 m 70 years 71 days +19 years 261 days +0 years 228 days 69 years 208 days 50 years 175 days
1879 6 f 82 years 346 days +29 years 259 days +11 years 91 days 71 years 255 days 53 years 87 days
1879 6 m 80 years 76 days +31 years 259 days +9 years 270 days 70 years 171 days 48 years 182 days
1878 5 m 73 years 120 days +27 years 117 days +1 years 314 days 71 years 171 days 46 years 3 days
1877 6 m 85 years 285 days +37 years 348 days +14 years 26 days 71 years 259 days 47 years 302 days
1877 5 m 68 years 251 days +20 years 314 days -3 years 8 days 71 years 259 days 47 years 302 days
1876 6 f 69 years 356 days +18 years 181 days -2 years 227 days 72 years 218 days 51 years 175 days
1874 6 f 60 years 112 days +9 years 313 days -12 years 205 days 72 years 317 days 50 years 164 days
1874 6 f 83 years 353 days +33 years 189 days +11 years 36 days 72 years 317 days 50 years 164 days
1872 5 m 49 years 268 days +3 years 188 days -22 years 359 days 72 years 262 days 46 years 80 days
1869 5 m 58 years 35 days +13 years 130 days -13 years 267 days 71 years 302 days 44 years 270 days
1867 5 m 50 years 168 days +4 years 296 days -21 years 142 days 71 years 310 days 45 years 237 days
1863 6 m 79 years 28 days +36 years 65 days +6 years 25 days 73 years 3 days 42 years 328 days
1857 6 m 50 years 15 days +5 years 172 days -23 years 193 days 73 years 208 days 44 years 208 days
1857 6 m 55 years 130 days +10 years 287 days -18 years 78 days 73 years 208 days 44 years 208 days
1855 5 f 65 years 14 days +17 years 314 days -8 years 219 days 73 years 233 days 47 years 65 days
1853 5 m 71 years 81 days +28 years 246 days -4 years 152 days 75 years 233 days 42 years 200 days
1853 6 m 61 years 14 days +18 years 179 days -14 years 219 days 75 years 233 days 42 years 200 days
1853 6 f 55 years 22 days +9 years 282 days -18 years 335 days 73 years 357 days 45 years 105 days
1852 6 f 41 years 228 days -4 years 38 days -33 years 155 days 75 years 18 days 45 years 266 days
1851 7 f 80 years 18 days +33 years 77 days +4 years 29 days 75 years 354 days 46 years 306 days
1851 6 f 87 years 222 days +40 years 281 days +11 years 233 days 75 years 354 days 46 years 306 days
1850 5 f 42 years 132 days -7 years 291 days -33 years 309 days 76 years 76 days 50 years 58 days
1849 5 m 47 years 288 days +9 years 245 days -27 years 244 days 75 years 167 days 38 years 43 days
1848 7 f 68 years 363 days +24 years 144 days -5 years 220 days 74 years 218 days 44 years 219 days
1847 6 f 66 years 346 days +24 years 146 days -6 years 201 days 73 years 182 days 42 years 200 days
1843 6 f 56 years 177 days +8 years 75 days -17 years 82 days 73 years 259 days 48 years 102 days
1842 7 m 91 years 295 days +46 years 336 days +16 years 102 days 75 years 193 days 44 years 324 days
1841 7 f 79 years 327 days +32 years 211 days +2 years 269 days 77 years 58 days 47 years 116 days$ go test
PASS
ok predict-death 0.153s