Implement forecast decomposition for Holt-like models

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -17,9 +17,10 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 - `ChangePointsLevelTransform` and base classes `PerIntervalModel`, `BaseChangePointsModelAdapter` for per-interval transforms ([#998](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/998))
 - Method `set_params` to change parameters of ETNA objects ([#1102](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/1102))
 - Function `plot_forecast_decomposition` ([#1129](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/1129))
-- Method `forecast_components` for forecast decomposition in `_TBATSAdapter` [#1125](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/issues/1125)
-- Methods `forecast_components` and `predict_components` for forecast decomposition in `_CatBoostAdapter` [#1135](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/issues/1135)
-- 
+- Method `forecast_components` for forecast decomposition in `_TBATSAdapter` ([#1125](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/issues/1125))
+- Methods `forecast_components` and `predict_components` for forecast decomposition in `_CatBoostAdapter` ([#1135](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/issues/1135))
+- Methods `forecast_components` and `predict_components` for forecast decomposition in `_HoltWintersAdapter ` ([#1146](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/issues/1146))
+-
 ### Changed
 - Add optional `features` parameter in the signature of `TSDataset.to_pandas`, `TSDataset.to_flatten` ([#809](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/809))
 - Signature of the constructor of `TFTModel`, `DeepARModel` ([#1110](https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna/pull/1110))

Makefile

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ mypy-check:
 	mypy
 
 spell-check:
-	codespell etna/ *.md tests/ -L mape,hist
+	codespell etna/ *.md tests/ -L mape,hist,lamda
 	python -m scripts.notebook_codespell
 
 imported-deps-check:

etna/models/holt_winters.py

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@
 
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
+from scipy.special import inv_boxcox
 from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters import ExponentialSmoothing
 from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.results import HoltWintersResultsWrapper
 
@@ -277,6 +278,135 @@ def get_model(self) -> HoltWintersResultsWrapper:
         """
         return self._result
 
+    def _check_mul_components(self):
+        """Raise error if model has multiplicative components."""
+        model = self._model
+
+        if model is None:
+            raise ValueError("This model is not fitted!")
+
+        if (model.trend is not None and model.trend == "mul") or (
+            model.seasonal is not None and model.seasonal == "mul"
+        ):
+            raise ValueError("Forecast decomposition is only supported for additive components!")
+
+    def _rescale_components(self, components: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Rescale components when Box-Cox transform used."""
+        if self._result is None:
+            raise ValueError("This model is not fitted!")
+
+        pred = np.sum(components.values, axis=1)
+        transformed_pred = inv_boxcox(pred, self._result.params["lamda"])
+        components *= (transformed_pred / pred).reshape((-1, 1))
+        return components
+
+    def forecast_components(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Estimate forecast components.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df:
+            features dataframe
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        :
+            dataframe with forecast components
+        """
+        model = self._model
+        fit_result = self._result
+
+        if fit_result is None or model is None:
+            raise ValueError("This model is not fitted!")
+
+        self._check_mul_components()
+        self._check_df(df)
+
+        level = fit_result.level.values
+        trend = fit_result.trend.values
+        season = fit_result.season.values
+
+        horizon = df["timestamp"].nunique()
+        horizon_steps = np.arange(1, horizon + 1)
+
+        components = {"target_component_level": level[-1] * np.ones(horizon)}
+
+        if model.trend is not None:
+            t = horizon_steps.copy()
+
+            if model.damped_trend:
+                t = np.cumsum(fit_result.params["damping_trend"] ** t)
+
+            components["target_component_trend"] = trend[-1] * t
+
+        if model.seasonal is not None:
+            last_period = len(season)
+
+            seasonal_periods = fit_result.model.seasonal_periods
+            k = horizon_steps // seasonal_periods
+
+            components["target_component_seasonality"] = season[
+                last_period + horizon_steps - seasonal_periods * (k + 1) - 1
+            ]
+
+        components_df = pd.DataFrame(data=components)
+
+        if model._use_boxcox:
+            components_df = self._rescale_components(components=components_df)
+
+        return components_df
+
+    def predict_components(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Estimate prediction components.
+
+        Parameters
+        ----------
+        df:
+            features dataframe
+
+        Returns
+        -------
+        :
+            dataframe with prediction components
+        """
+        model = self._model
+        fit_result = self._result
+
+        if fit_result is None or model is None:
+            raise ValueError("This model is not fitted!")
+
+        self._check_mul_components()
+        self._check_df(df)
+
+        level = fit_result.level.values
+        trend = fit_result.trend.values
+        season = fit_result.season.values
+
+        components = {
+            "target_component_level": np.concatenate([[fit_result.params["initial_level"]], level[:-1]]),
+        }
+
+        if model.trend is not None:
+            trend = np.concatenate([[fit_result.params["initial_trend"]], trend[:-1]])
+
+            if model.damped_trend:
+                trend *= fit_result.params["damping_trend"]
+
+            components["target_component_trend"] = trend
+
+        if model.seasonal is not None:
+            seasonal_periods = model.seasonal_periods
+            components["target_component_seasonality"] = np.concatenate(
+                [fit_result.params["initial_seasons"], season[:-seasonal_periods]]
+            )
+
+        components_df = pd.DataFrame(data=components)
+
+        if model._use_boxcox:
+            components_df = self._rescale_components(components=components_df)
+
+        return components_df
+
 
 class HoltWintersModel(
     PerSegmentModelMixin,
@@ -289,6 +419,11 @@ class HoltWintersModel(
     Notes
     -----
     We use :py:class:`statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.ExponentialSmoothing` model from statsmodels package.
+
+    This model supports in-sample and out-of-sample prediction decomposition.
+    Prediction components for Holt-Winters model are: level, trend and seasonality.
+    For in-sample decomposition, components are obtained directly from the fitted model. For out-of-sample,
+    components estimated using an analytical form of the prediction function.
     """
 
     def __init__(
@@ -486,6 +621,11 @@ class HoltModel(HoltWintersModel):
     We use :py:class:`statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.ExponentialSmoothing` model from statsmodels package.
     They implement :py:class:`statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.Holt` model
     as a restricted version of :py:class:`~statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.ExponentialSmoothing` model.
+
+    This model supports in-sample and out-of-sample prediction decomposition.
+    Prediction components for Holt model are: level and trend.
+    For in-sample decomposition, components are obtained directly from the fitted model. For out-of-sample,
+    components estimated using an analytical form of the prediction function.
     """
 
     def __init__(
@@ -583,6 +723,10 @@ class SimpleExpSmoothingModel(HoltWintersModel):
     We use :py:class:`statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.ExponentialSmoothing` model from statsmodels package.
     They implement :py:class:`statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.SimpleExpSmoothing` model
     as a restricted version of :py:class:`~statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.ExponentialSmoothing` model.
+
+    This model supports in-sample and out-of-sample prediction decomposition.
+    For in-sample decomposition, level component is obtained directly from the fitted model. For out-of-sample,
+    it estimated using an analytical form of the prediction function.
     """
 
     def __init__(

tests/test_models/test_holt_winters_model.py

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
 import pytest
 from statsmodels.tsa.holtwinters.results import HoltWintersResultsWrapper
 
@@ -8,6 +9,7 @@
 from etna.models import HoltModel
 from etna.models import HoltWintersModel
 from etna.models import SimpleExpSmoothingModel
+from etna.models.holt_winters import _HoltWintersAdapter
 from etna.pipeline import Pipeline
 from tests.test_models.utils import assert_model_equals_loaded_original
 
@@ -119,3 +121,133 @@ def test_get_model_after_training(example_tsds, etna_model_class, expected_class
 @pytest.mark.parametrize("model", [HoltModel(), HoltWintersModel(), SimpleExpSmoothingModel()])
 def test_save_load(model, example_tsds):
     assert_model_equals_loaded_original(model=model, ts=example_tsds, transforms=[], horizon=3)
+
+
+@pytest.fixture()
+def multi_trend_dfs(multitrend_df):
+    df = multitrend_df.copy()
+    df.columns = df.columns.droplevel("segment")
+    df.reset_index(inplace=True)
+    df["target"] += 10 - df["target"].min()
+
+    return df.iloc[:-9], df.iloc[-9:]
+
+
+@pytest.fixture()
+def seasonal_dfs():
+    target = pd.Series(
+        [
+            41.727458,
+            24.041850,
+            32.328103,
+            37.328708,
+            46.213153,
+            29.346326,
+            36.482910,
+            42.977719,
+            48.901525,
+            31.180221,
+            37.717881,
+            40.420211,
+            51.206863,
+            31.887228,
+            40.978263,
+            43.772491,
+            55.558567,
+            33.850915,
+            42.076383,
+            45.642292,
+            59.766780,
+            35.191877,
+            44.319737,
+            47.913736,
+        ],
+        index=pd.period_range(start="2005Q1", end="2010Q4", freq="Q"),
+    )
+
+    df = pd.DataFrame(
+        {
+            "timestamp": target.index.to_timestamp(),
+            "target": target.values,
+        }
+    )
+
+    return df.iloc[:-9], df.iloc[-9:]
+
+
+def test_check_mul_components_not_fitted_error():
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter()
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="This model is not fitted!"):
+        model._check_mul_components()
+
+
+def test_rescale_components_not_fitted_error():
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter()
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="This model is not fitted!"):
+        model._rescale_components(pd.DataFrame({}))
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("components_method_name", ("predict_components", "forecast_components"))
+def test_decomposition_not_fitted_error(seasonal_dfs, components_method_name):
+    _, test = seasonal_dfs
+
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter()
+    components_method = getattr(model, components_method_name)
+
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="This model is not fitted!"):
+        components_method(df=test)
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("components_method_name", ("predict_components", "forecast_components"))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("trend,seasonal", (("mul", "mul"), ("mul", None), (None, "mul")))
+def test_check_mul_components(seasonal_dfs, trend, seasonal, components_method_name):
+    _, test = seasonal_dfs
+
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter(trend=trend, seasonal=seasonal)
+    model.fit(test, [])
+
+    components_method = getattr(model, components_method_name)
+
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Forecast decomposition is only supported for additive components!"):
+        components_method(df=test)
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("components_method_name", ("predict_components", "forecast_components"))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("trend,trend_component", (("add", ["target_component_trend"]), (None, [])))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("seasonal,seasonal_component", (("add", ["target_component_seasonality"]), (None, [])))
+def test_components_names(seasonal_dfs, trend, trend_component, seasonal, seasonal_component, components_method_name):
+    expected_components_names = set(trend_component + seasonal_component + ["target_component_level"])
+    _, test = seasonal_dfs
+
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter(trend=trend, seasonal=seasonal)
+    model.fit(test, [])
+    components_method = getattr(model, components_method_name)
+    components = components_method(df=test)
+
+    assert set(components.columns) == expected_components_names
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize(
+    "components_method_name,in_sample", (("predict_components", True), ("forecast_components", False))
+)
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("df_names", ("seasonal_dfs", "multi_trend_dfs"))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("trend,damped_trend", (("add", True), ("add", False), (None, False)))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("seasonal", ("add", None))
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("use_boxcox", (True, False))
+def test_components_sum_up_to_target(
+    df_names, trend, seasonal, damped_trend, use_boxcox, components_method_name, in_sample, request
+):
+    dfs = request.getfixturevalue(df_names)
+    train, test = dfs
+
+    model = _HoltWintersAdapter(trend=trend, seasonal=seasonal, damped_trend=damped_trend, use_boxcox=use_boxcox)
+    model.fit(train, [])
+
+    components_method = getattr(model, components_method_name)
+
+    pred_df = train if in_sample else test
+
+    components = components_method(df=pred_df)
+    pred = model.predict(pred_df)
+
+    np.testing.assert_allclose(np.sum(components.values, axis=1), pred)