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Stochastic-Shortest-Path-Minimize-Memorization-Cost for FSRS

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SSP-MMC-FSRS

Introduction

SSP-MMC-FSRS is an extended verson of SSP-MMC, which is an algorithm for minimizing the memorization cost in spaced repetiton. The core hypothesis of SSP-MMC is the learner will memorize a card forever when the stability exceeds a certain threshold. With this hypothesis, and the memory state-transition function (provided by FSRS), we can formulate the problem as a special case of the Markov Decision Process (MDP), i.e., a stochastic shortest path problem.

Results

  • Scheduling Policy: how the intervals are calculated. When SSP-MMC is used, the intervals are chosen so that the "cost" (in minutes of studying) is minimized. When a fixed value of desired retention is used, the intervals correspond to the desired probability of recall.
  • Average number of minutes per day: same as above, but minutes of studying are used instead. Lower is better.
  • Total knowledge at the end: the sum of probabilities of recall of all reviewed cards by the end of the simulation. It cannot be greater than the deck size. Higher is better.
  • Knowledge per minute: a measure of learning efficiency. Higher is better.

Deck size = 10,000 cards. New cards per day = 10, max. reviews per day = 9,999.

The best result is highlighted in bold.

Duration of the simulation = 365 days

Schedulling Policy Average number of reviews per day Average number of minutes per day Total knowledge at the end Knowledge per minute
SSP-MMC 54.0 16.0 3362 210
DR=0.70 31.1 14.8 3053 206
DR=0.73 32.7 14.4 3106 216
DR=0.76 36.1 14.7 3162 216
DR=0.79 39.3 14.8 3204 217
DR=0.82 44.6 15.4 3262 212
DR=0.85 49.3 15.4 3307 214
DR=0.88 57.2 16.3 3356 206
DR=0.91 71.1 17.7 3406 193
DR=0.94 95.0 20.6 3452 168
DR=0.97 159.2 28.4 3501 123

Duration of the simulation = 3650 days

Schedulling Policy Average number of reviews per day Average number of minutes per day Total knowledge at the end Knowledge per minute
SSP-MMC 41.1 11.3 9809 867
DR=0.70 29.6 12.0 8685 724
DR=0.73 31.1 11.8 8918 756
DR=0.76 33.5 11.8 9020 762
DR=0.79 36.1 11.8 9301 788
DR=0.82 39.4 11.9 9488 800
DR=0.85 42.7 11.7 9641 824
DR=0.88 47.1 11.6 9775 841
DR=0.91 55.8 12.2 9870 809
DR=0.94 71.8 13.8 9938 722
DR=0.97 118.5 19.3 9983 516

SSP-MMC performs better over longer periods of time.