update the WDL model

[robertnurnberg]

This PR updates the internal WDL model, using data from 2.6M games played by the revisions since 9fb5832. Note that the normalizing constant increases only moderately from 368 to 372.

> ./updateWDL.sh --firstrev 9fb58328e363d84e3cf720b018e639b139ba95c2
Running: ./updateWDL.sh --firstrev 9fb58328e363d84e3cf720b018e639b139ba95c2 --lasttrev HEAD --materialMin 17 --EloDiffMax 5
started at:  Tue 3 Sep 07:58:46 CEST 2024
Look recursively in directory pgns for games with max nElo difference 5 using books matching "UHO_Lichess_4852_v..epd" for SF revisions between 9fb58328e363d84e3cf720b018e639b139ba95c2 (from 2024-08-20 21:37:25 +0200) and HEAD (from 2024-08-28 09:35:21 +0200).
Based on 136760463 positions from 2555313 games, NormalizeToPawnValue should change from 368 to 372.
ended at:  Tue 3 Sep 08:00:25 CEST 2024

> cat scoreWDL.log
Converting evals with NormalizeData = {'momType': 'material', 'momMin': 17, 'momMax': 78, 'momTarget': 58, 'as': [-41.25712052, 121.47473115, -124.46958843, 411.84490997]}.
Reading eval stats from updateWDL.json.
Retained (W,D,L) = (33076119, 69977375, 33706969) positions.
Saved distribution plot to updateWDLdistro.png.
Fit WDL model based on material.
Initial objective function:  0.3715652967144619
Final objective function:    0.3715617461834834
Optimization terminated successfully.
const int NormalizeToPawnValue = 372;
Corresponding spread = 75;
Corresponding normalized spread = 0.203011710365265;
Draw rate at 0.0 eval at material 58 = 0.9855910765358731;
Parameters in internal value units: 
p_a = ((-37.451 * x / 58 + 121.191) * x / 58 + -132.788) * x / 58 + 420.706
p_b = ((90.263 * x / 58 + -137.265) * x / 58 + 71.101) * x / 58 + 51.353
    constexpr double as[] = {-37.45051876, 121.19101539, -132.78783573, 420.70576692};
    constexpr double bs[] = {90.26261072, -137.26549898, 71.10130540, 51.35259597};
Preparing plots.
Saved graphics to updateWDL.png.
Total elapsed time = 35.50s.

[robertnurnberg]

Here a graphical visualization of the new WDL model, and the frequency of the positions for each used material count.

[vondele]

LGTM

[vondele]

closing as merged in 2054add