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jprestop committed Apr 9, 2021
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Introduction
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The TC-Gen tool provides verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in ATCF file format. Producing reliable tropical cyclone genesis forecasts is an important metric for global numerical weather prediction models. This tool ingests deterministic model output post-processed by a genesis tracking software (e.g. GFDL vortex tracker) and ATCF format reference dataset(s) (e.g. Best Track analysis and CARQ operational tracks) and outputs categorical counts and statistics. The capability to modify the spatial and temporal tolerances that define a “hit” forecast is included to give users the ability to condition the criteria based on model performance and/or conduct sensitivity analyses. Statistical aspects are outlined in Section 21.2 and practical aspects of the TC-Gen tool are described in Section 21.3.
The TC-Gen tool provides verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in ATCF file format. Producing reliable tropical cyclone genesis forecasts is an important metric for global numerical weather prediction models. This tool ingests deterministic model output post-processed by a genesis tracking software (e.g. GFDL vortex tracker) and ATCF format reference dataset(s) (e.g. Best Track analysis and CARQ operational tracks) and outputs categorical counts and statistics. The capability to modify the spatial and temporal tolerances that define a “hit” forecast is included to give users the ability to condition the criteria based on model performance and/or conduct sensitivity analyses. Statistical aspects are outlined in :numref:`tc-gen_stat_aspects` and practical aspects of the TC-Gen tool are described in :numref:`tc-gen_practical_info`.

.. _tc-gen_stat_aspects:

Statistical aspects
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Care should be taken when interpreting the statistics for filtered data. In some cases, variables (e.g. storm name) are only available in either the forecast or reference datasets, rather than both. When filtering on a field that is only present in one dataset, the contingency table counts will be impacted. Similarly, the initialization field only impacts the model forecast data. If the valid time (which will impact the reference dataset) isn't also specified, the forecasts will be filtered and matched such that the number of misses will erroneously increase. See section 21.3 for more detail.

.. _tc-gen_practical_info:

Practical information
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