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[blog](blog): 2024-11-19
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| layout: post | ||
| tags: [Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, past presidential candidate performance, politics] | ||
| categories: [president-elect Donald Trump 47] | ||
| date: 2024-11-19 4:41 PM | ||
| excerpt: "Trump’s still ahead of Harris in the popular vote. He also maintains a lead in the decisive, though absurdly anti-democratic, Electoral College— slightly less than Barack Obama’s in 2012, slightly more Joe Biden’s in 2020—based on a pattern of wins in battleground states. So, the failure to win a majority won’t cost Trump the presidency. But he’s lost his ability to suggest that he trounced the Democrat. In fact, she’s now trailing him by just 1.68 percent of the vote." | ||
| #image: 'BASEURL/assets/blog/img/.png' | ||
| #description: | ||
| #permalink: | ||
| title: 'No Mandate For You, Trump!' | ||
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| ## [Donald Trump Has NOT Won a Majority of the Votes Cast for President](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/donald-trump-vote-margin-narrowed/) | ||
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| Story by John Nichols. November 19, 2024. | ||
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| - **Trump's Popular Vote**: Donald Trump's popular vote percentage has fallen below 50% as more votes are counted, particularly from Democratic-leaning states. | ||
| - **Narrow Margin**: Trump's margin over Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed, with Trump leading by just 1.68% of the vote. | ||
| - **Historical Context**: Trump's popular vote percentage is lower than many past presidents, including recent ones like Biden and Obama. | ||
| - **Mandate Claims**: Despite winning the Electoral College, Trump's claim of a powerful mandate is weakened by his narrow popular vote margin. | ||
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| “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. . . a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this.” – Donald Trump declared in the early morning hours of November 6, 2024, after all the polls had closed. Indeed, he claimed that he had won. Trump was excited by the numbers showing him with well over 50 percent of the popular vote and establishing a wide lead over his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. | ||
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| Unfortunately, for the president-elect, the United States takes time to count 155,000,000 million votes—give or take a million—and the actual result will rob Trump of his bragging points. | ||
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| Trump can no longer claim that powerful mandate. By most reasonable measures, the beginning point for such a claim in a system with two major parties is an overwhelming majority vote in favor of your candidacy. Trump no longer has that. | ||
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| Over the weekend, as California, Oregon, Washington, and other western states moved closer to completing their counts, Trump’s percentage of the popular vote fell below 50 percent. And his margin of victory looks to be much smaller than initially anticipated. In fact, of all the 59 presidential elections since the nation’s founding, it appears that—after all of the 2024 votes are counted—only five popular vote winners in history will have prevailed by smaller percentage margins than Trump. | ||
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| Trump’s popular-vote advantage has declined steadily since election night. | ||
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| | As of Monday afternoon[^61[ | Percentage | | ||
| |---|---| | ||
| | Trump | 49.94% | | ||
| | Harris | 48.26% | | ||
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| [^61]: According to the authoritative Cook Political Report’s tracking of results from official sources in states across the country. And we can expect that the Republican’s total will only continue to tick downward as heavily Democratic states on the West Coast finalize their vote tallies. | ||
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| Trump’s still ahead of Harris in the popular vote. He also maintains a lead in the decisive, though absurdly anti-democratic, Electoral College— slightly less than Barack Obama’s in 2012, slightly more Joe Biden’s in 2020—based on a pattern of wins in battleground states. So, the failure to win a majority won’t cost Trump the presidency. But he’s lost his ability to suggest that he trounced the Democrat. In fact, she’s now trailing him by just **1.68 percent of the vote.** | ||
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| Let’s put this in perspective: Trump is winning a lower percent of the popular vote this year than | ||
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| | President | Year | Percentage | | ||
| |---|---|---| | ||
| | Lyndon Johnson | 1964 | 61.1% | | ||
| | Franklin Delano Roosevelt | — | 60.8% | | ||
| | Richard Nixon | 1972 | 60.7% | | ||
| | Biden | 2020 | 51.3% | | ||
| | Obama | 2012| 51.1% | | ||
| | Obama | 2008 | 52.9% | | ||
| | George W. Bush | 2004 | 50.7% | | ||
| | George H.W. Bush | 1988 | 53.2% | | ||
| | Ronald Reagan | 1984 | 58.8% | | ||
| | Reagan | 1980 | 50.7% | | ||
| | Jimmy Carter | 1976 | 50.1% | | ||
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| And, of course, Trump numbers are way below the presidents who won what could reasonably be described as “unprecedented and powerful” mandates. As Trump’s percentage continues to slide, he’ll fall below the thresholds achieved by most presidents in the past century. | ||
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| | Candidate | Year | Percentage | | ||
| |---|---|---| | ||
| | Trump | 2024 | 49.94% | | ||
| | Harris | 2024 | 48.26% | | ||
| | Trump | 2016 | 48.2% | | ||
| | Gerald Ford | 1976 | 48% | | ||
| | George W. Bush | 2000 | 47.9% | | ||
| | Mitt Romney | 2012 | 47.2% | | ||
| | Trump | 2020 | 46.8% | | ||
| | Trump | 2016 | 46.1% | | ||
| | John McCain | 2008 | 45.7% | | ||
| | Michael Dukakis | 1988 | 45.6% | | ||
| | Nixon | 1968 | 43.4% | | ||
| | Clinton | 1992 | 43% | | ||
| | Carter | 1980 | 41% | | ||
| | Bob Dole | 1996 | 40.7% | | ||
| | Walter Mondale | 1984 | 40.6% | | ||
| | George H.W. Bush |1992 | 37.4% | | ||
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| Yes, some of those historic results were influenced by the presence of strong third-party contenders. But most were not. And the bottom line is that the gap between Trump and Harris is narrower than the difference between major-party contenders in the vast majority of American presidential races. | ||
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| Why make note of all the presidents who ran better than Trump? Why discuss the narrowness of his advantage over Harris? Why consider, in addition, that the Republican majorities in the House and Senate will be among the narrowest in modern American history? Because it puts the 2024 election results in perspective—and, in doing so, gives members of both parties an understanding of how to respond when Trump claims that an unappealing nominee or policy should be accepted out of deference to his “powerful” mandate. | ||
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| [Trump](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump), simply put in a two letter word that you don’t understand; | ||
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| [Trump’s](https:///x.com/realdonaldtrump/) victory was: | ||
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| - **Not** “epic” | ||
| - **Not** “historic” | ||
| - **No** “landslide” | ||
| - **No** “decisive victory” | ||
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| That won’t matter to Trump, who claimed a mandate even when he lost the 2016 popular vote by almost 3 million ballots. Four years later, Trump refused to accept his defeat by more than 7 million votes, and denied that majority support for Biden in the 2020 election amounted to anything akin to a mandate. |
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| layout: post | ||
| tags: [Joe Biden, judicial nominees confirmation, Donald Trump] | ||
| categories: [president-elect Trump 47] | ||
| date: 2024-11-19 3:24 PM | ||
| excerpt: '"Regardless of party, the American people expect their leaders to fight for the rule of law and to ensure the criminal justice system can function effectively in every state. Delaying the confirmation of highly qualified, experienced judges takes a real-life toll on constituents and leads to backlogs of criminal cases -- meaning Senator Thune was correct in 2020 when he said senators have every urgent reason for Republicans and Democrats to continue working together in good faith to staff the federal bench." – White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement.' | ||
| #image: 'BASEURL/assets/blog/img/.png' | ||
| #description: | ||
| #permalink: | ||
| title: "Damn It Trump! You Ain't President Yet! Biden’s Still Has a Nation As President!" | ||
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| ## [In reversals, Trump and Thune look to stop Biden's judicial nominees](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reversal-thune-seeks-slow-bidens-judicial-nominees/story?id=116010653) | ||
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| November 19, 2024. | ||
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| - **Trump's Call**: President-elect Donald Trump urged a halt in confirming President Joe Biden's judicial nominees, accusing Democrats of trying to stack the courts. | ||
| - **White House Response**: The White House argued that delaying confirmations harms the rule of law and leads to backlogs in criminal cases. | ||
| - **Senate Republicans' Actions**: Senate Republicans, led by Sen. John Thune, obstructed the confirmation process, reversing Thune's previous stance on the importance of confirming judges. | ||
| - **Schumer's Efforts**: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer vowed to continue confirming judges, highlighting the diversity and qualifications of Biden's nominees. | ||
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| "The Democrats are trying to stack the Courts with Radical Left Judges on their way out the door. No more Judges confirmed before Inauguration Day!" – Trump wrote on his social media platform. | ||
| The White House responded to Trump's post, arguing that "there is no excuse for choosing partisanship over enforcing the rule of law." | ||
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| "Regardless of party, the American people expect their leaders to fight for the rule of law and to ensure the criminal justice system can function effectively in every state. Delaying the confirmation of highly qualified, experienced judges takes a real-life toll on constituents and leads to backlogs of criminal cases -- meaning Senator Thune was correct in 2020 when he said senators have every urgent reason for Republicans and Democrats to continue working together in good faith to staff the federal bench." – White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement. | ||
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| "If Sen. Schumer thought Senate Republicans would just roll over and allow him to quickly confirm multiple Biden-appointed judges to lifetime jobs in the final weeks of the Democrat majority, he thought wrong," Thune said in a statement to ABC News. | ||
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| Thune's statement vowing to obstruct the judicial confirmation process in the final hours of the Biden presidency is a departure from comments he made just a few years ago toward the end of Trump's administration. At the time, Thune touted the importance of confirming judges to the bench, saying it was "one of our most important responsibilities as senators" and one of the main reasons he ran for the Senate. – Thune said during a floor speech on Nov. 18 2020 -- after Biden won the election. | ||
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| His comments from 2020 are a notable reversal from his comments this week, as Senate Republicans look to obstruct Democrats as they attempt to do the same for Biden. | ||
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| Schumer though, doubled down on his efforts Tuesday, and said he expects the Senate to work late into the night again this Wednesday to get the nominees through. Senate Democrats are hoping to confirm as many judges to lifetime appointments as they can while Biden is still president. | ||
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| "Members should be prepared for another late night on Wednesday to vote on the nominations I filed last night. Voting on the president's judicial nominees is a core function of the Senate. It's one of our basic responsibilities, and we're going to carry out that responsibility as long as this majority continues. I'm very proud of the judges we've confirmed over the past four years under this administration, they have all been highly qualified individuals, and together, they represent a wide range of experiences and areas of expertise. We're not done. There are more judges to consider and confirm." | ||
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| Schumer touted the quality of judges the Senate has passed under his leadership, noting their many backgrounds and cultures and identities. He said under his watch, the Senate has confirmed a record number of women and people of color to the federal bench. | ||
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| Schumer vowed to spend the rest of the week -- and the year -- confirming more judges. Every judge confirmed in this lame-duck session of Congress is one fewer vacancy Trump can fill come January. | ||
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| Republicans have Democrats' record on judicial confirmations beat. | ||
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| Republicans confirmed 234 of Trump's nominees to the federal courts during his four years in office, and so far the Democrat-controlled Senate has confirmed 216 under Biden's administration. |