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New ppp.py #2466

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146 changes: 60 additions & 86 deletions ppp.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,98 +1,72 @@
"""
Policy parameter projection script, which calculates future policy parameter
values under TCJA and which should be used when the following happens:
(1) the inflation factor values change in growfactors.csv, or
(2) the last known historical values of policy parameters are updated,
in which case the byear parameter (see below) should be incremented.
Policy parameter projection script, which calculates policy parameter
values that were changed by TCJA and will revert to their pre-TCJA
values in 2026 (adjusted for inflation). The script should be run
when the inflation factor values change in growfactors.csv.

USAGE: $ python ppp.py
OUTPUT: ppp.old -- contains old parameter values in policy_current_law.json
ppp.new -- contains new parameter values that should now be used

Note: running this script will write the new 2026 parameter values
directly to policy_current_law.json.
"""
from taxcalc import Policy
from taxcalc import *
import json

# specify year constants (only byear should vary)
syear = Policy.JSON_START_YEAR
pyear = 2017 # prior year before TCJA first implemented
byear = 2019 # base year: year for last known historical parameter values
fyear = 2026 # final year in which parameter values revert to pre-TCJA values
params = Policy()

# ensure proper relationship between year constants
assert pyear == 2017
assert fyear == 2026
assert byear > pyear and byear < fyear
# parameters that will revert
long_params = ['II_brk7', 'II_brk6', 'II_brk5', 'II_brk4',
'II_brk3', 'II_brk2', 'II_brk1',
'PT_brk7', 'PT_brk6', 'PT_brk5', 'PT_brk4',
'PT_brk3', 'PT_brk2', 'PT_brk1',
'PT_qbid_taxinc_thd',
'ALD_BusinessLosses_c',
'STD', 'II_em', 'II_em_ps',
'AMT_em', 'AMT_em_ps', 'AMT_em_pe',
'ID_ps', 'ID_AllTaxes_c']

# specify current-law policy that includes TCJA inflation indexing rules
clp = Policy()
pdata = clp._vals
# calculate the inflation factor used to calculate the
# inflation-adjusted 2026 parameter values
final_ifactor = 1.0
pyear = 2017 # prior year before TCJA first implemented
fyear = 2026 # final year in which parameter values revert to
# pre-TCJA values
# construct final-year inflation factor from prior year
# NOTE: pvalue[t+1] = pvalue[t] * ( 1 + irate[t] )
for year in range(pyear, fyear):
final_ifactor *= 1 + \
params._inflation_rates[year - params.start_year]

# identify policy parameters that have their values reverted in final year
skip_list = ['_II_brk7', '_PT_brk7'] # because they are both "infinity" (9e99)
fyr = fyear
reverting_params = list()
for pname in sorted(pdata.keys()):
pdict = pdata[pname]
if pdata[pname]['indexed'] and fyr in pdata[pname]['value_yrs']:
if pname not in skip_list:
reverting_params.append(pname)
print('number_of_reverting_parameters= {}'.format(len(reverting_params)))
long_param_vals = defaultdict(list)

# write ppp.old containing existing values for reverting policy parameters
old = open('ppp.old', 'w')
for pname in reverting_params:
old.write('*** {} ***\n'.format(pname))
# write parameter values for each year in [pyear,fyear] range
for year in range(pyear, fyear + 1):
value = pdata[pname]['value'][year - syear]
old.write('{}: {}\n'.format(year, value))
old.close()
for param in long_params:
vos = params.select_eq(param, year=pyear)
# use final_ifactor to inflate from 2017 to 2026
for vo in vos:
long_param_vals[param].append(
# Create new dict to avoid modifying the original
dict(
vo,
value=min(9e99, round(
vo["value"] * final_ifactor, 0)),
year=fyear,
)
)

# get TCJA parameter inflation rates for each year
irate = clp.inflation_rates()
# call adjust method for new 2026 values
params.adjust(long_param_vals)
params.clear_state()
param_data = params.specification(
meta_data=False, serializable=True, use_state=False, _auto=False)

# construct final-year inflation factor from prior year
# < NOTE: pvalue[t+1] = pvalue[t] * ( 1 + irate[t] ) >
final_ifactor = 1.0
for year in range(pyear, fyear):
final_ifactor *= 1 + irate[year - syear]
# read existing policy_current_law.json
with open('taxcalc/policy_current_law.json', 'r') as f:
pcl = json.load(f)

# construct intermediate-year inflation factors from base year
# < NOTE: pvalue[t+1] = pvalue[t] * ( 1 + irate[t] ) >
ifactor = dict()
factor = 1.0
for year in range(byear, fyear):
ifactor[year] = factor
factor *= 1 + irate[year - syear]
# replace 2026 values in policy_current_law.json
for param in param_data:
pcl[param]["value"] = param_data[param]

# write or calculate policy parameter values for pyear through fyear
new = open('ppp.new', 'w')
for pname in reverting_params:
new.write('*** {} ***\n'.format(pname))
# write parameter values for prior year
value = pdata[pname]['value'][pyear - syear]
new.write('{}: {}\n'.format(pyear, value))
# write parameter values for year after prior year up through base year
for year in range(pyear + 1, byear + 1):
value = pdata[pname]['value'][year - syear]
new.write('{}: {}\n'.format(year, value))
# compute parameter values for intermediate years
bvalue = pdata[pname]['value'][byear - syear]
for year in range(byear + 1, fyear):
if isinstance(bvalue, list):
value = list()
for idx in range(0, len(bvalue)):
val = min(9e99, round(bvalue[idx] * ifactor[year], 2))
value.append(val)
else:
value = min(9e99, round(bvalue * ifactor[year], 2))
new.write('{}: {}\n'.format(year, value))
# compute final year parameter value
pvalue = pdata[pname]['value'][pyear - syear]
if isinstance(pvalue, list):
value = list()
for idx in range(0, len(pvalue)):
val = min(9e99, round(pvalue[idx] * final_ifactor, 0))
value.append(val)
else:
value = min(9e99, round(pvalue * final_ifactor, 0))
new.write('{}: {}\n'.format(fyear, value))
new.close()
# write new policy_current_law.json
with open('taxcalc/policy_current_law.json', 'w') as pcl_old:
json.dump(pcl, pcl_old, indent=4)
94 changes: 47 additions & 47 deletions taxcalc/policy_current_law.json
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1547,27 +1547,27 @@
{
"year": 2026,
"MARS": "single",
"value": 316457.0
"value": 315093.0
},
{
"year": 2026,
"MARS": "mjoint",
"value": 379748.0
"value": 378112.0
},
{
"year": 2026,
"MARS": "mseparate",
"value": 189874.0
"value": 189056.0
},
{
"year": 2026,
"MARS": "headhh",
"value": 348102.0
"value": 346603.0
},
{
"year": 2026,
"MARS": "widow",
"value": 379748.0
"value": 378112.0
}
],
"validators": {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5778,38 +5778,38 @@
"value": [
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "med",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "med"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "sltx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "sltx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "retx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "retx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "cas",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "cas"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "misc",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "misc"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "int",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "int"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "char",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "char"
}
],
"validators": {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5861,38 +5861,38 @@
"value": [
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "med",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "med"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "sltx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "sltx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "retx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "retx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "cas",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "cas"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "misc",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "misc"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "int",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "int"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "char",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "char"
}
],
"validators": {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -6141,38 +6141,38 @@
"value": [
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "med",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "med"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "sltx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "sltx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "retx",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "retx"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "cas",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "cas"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "misc",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "misc"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "int",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "int"
},
{
"year": 2013,
"idedtype": "char",
"value": true
"value": true,
"idedtype": "char"
}
],
"validators": {
Expand Down
10 changes: 5 additions & 5 deletions taxcalc/tests/cpscsv_agg_expect.csv
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,11 +5,11 @@ Itemizers (#m),67.8,28.8,30.5,31.8,32.6,33.7,34.7,35.9,37.0,83.4
Itemized Deduction ($b),1339.1,734.2,792.6,843.5,876.2,925.7,977.6,1034.0,1093.6,2112.2
Standard Deduction Filers (#m),129.2,171.1,172.2,173.6,175.5,177.1,178.8,180.4,182.0,138.3
Standard Deduction ($b),1224.7,3016.4,3088.8,3165.1,3272.2,3380.4,3493.8,3605.0,3717.8,1602.1
Personal Exemption ($b),1482.3,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1982.6
Taxable Income ($b),7471.8,8388.7,8855.1,9275.7,9725.8,10138.2,10523.4,10938.3,11367.3,11135.9
Regular Tax ($b),1482.0,1496.5,1586.0,1670.9,1759.1,1838.9,1912.1,1991.8,2074.6,2274.5
Personal Exemption ($b),1482.3,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1982.3
Taxable Income ($b),7471.8,8388.7,8855.1,9275.7,9725.8,10138.2,10523.4,10938.3,11367.3,11136.2
Regular Tax ($b),1482.0,1496.5,1586.0,1670.9,1759.1,1838.9,1912.1,1991.8,2074.6,2274.6
AMT Income ($b),9689.2,10621.1,11140.6,11614.2,12142.1,12629.0,13092.4,13583.5,14089.0,14116.4
AMT Liability ($b),10.8,0.8,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9,0.9,0.9,16.6
AMT Liability ($b),10.8,0.8,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9,0.9,0.9,16.5
AMT Filers (#m),3.4,0.2,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,4.5
Tax before Credits ($b),1492.9,1497.2,1586.9,1671.8,1760.0,1839.9,1913.1,1992.7,2075.5,2291.1
Refundable Credits ($b),82.1,96.6,96.5,96.0,96.4,98.1,99.2,100.3,102.0,88.2
Expand All @@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ Reform Surtaxes ($b),0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
Other Taxes ($b),12.4,13.6,14.4,15.1,16.0,16.9,17.4,18.4,19.5,20.7
Ind Income Tax ($b),1389.9,1318.6,1407.2,1491.5,1578.6,1656.4,1727.7,1806.1,1887.4,2193.5
Payroll Taxes ($b),1104.5,1156.3,1213.0,1269.6,1327.1,1381.0,1433.0,1485.5,1538.7,1594.0
Combined Liability ($b),2494.4,2474.9,2620.2,2761.1,2905.7,3037.3,3160.7,3291.6,3426.1,3787.4
Combined Liability ($b),2494.4,2474.9,2620.2,2761.1,2905.7,3037.3,3160.7,3291.6,3426.1,3787.5
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m),92.2,96.8,97.3,98.0,98.6,99.5,100.4,101.3,102.3,100.4
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m),63.7,66.3,67.2,68.1,69.1,70.2,71.3,72.3,73.4,72.9
UBI Benefits ($b),0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
Expand Down
8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions taxcalc/tests/pufcsv_agg_expect.csv
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,11 +5,11 @@ Itemizers (#m),46.2,20.8,21.8,22.4,22.3,22.8,23.2,23.6,24.0,54.4
Itemized Deduction ($b),1306.5,653.5,692.3,727.6,737.7,770.8,804.4,839.9,876.7,1974.8
Standard Deduction Filers (#m),123.7,152.0,153.4,155.1,157.4,159.2,161.1,162.8,164.6,136.5
Standard Deduction ($b),1096.2,2579.0,2651.3,2722.8,2828.0,2925.7,3030.3,3131.2,3237.2,1471.3
Personal Exemption ($b),1253.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1639.0
Taxable Income ($b),8228.4,9296.8,9784.3,10227.7,10690.3,11103.3,11508.6,11944.2,12388.3,12069.5
Regular Tax ($b),1680.2,1733.6,1827.6,1920.8,2012.8,2093.1,2172.1,2257.6,2344.0,2512.2
Personal Exemption ($b),1253.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1638.6
Taxable Income ($b),8228.4,9296.8,9784.3,10227.7,10690.3,11103.3,11508.6,11944.2,12388.3,12069.8
Regular Tax ($b),1680.2,1733.6,1827.6,1920.8,2012.8,2093.1,2172.1,2257.6,2344.0,2512.3
AMT Income ($b),10708.4,11605.2,12150.6,12661.9,13216.2,13714.9,14213.3,14738.4,15273.0,15467.1
AMT Liability ($b),50.1,23.0,24.3,25.4,26.5,27.5,28.7,29.8,31.2,78.1
AMT Liability ($b),50.1,23.0,24.3,25.4,26.5,27.5,28.7,29.8,31.2,78.0
AMT Filers (#m),5.4,0.5,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.2,1.2,7.5
Tax before Credits ($b),1730.2,1756.6,1851.9,1946.2,2039.3,2120.6,2200.8,2287.5,2375.2,2590.3
Refundable Credits ($b),104.6,120.0,120.8,120.8,121.9,124.6,126.6,128.4,131.4,116.6
Expand Down