Adjust crafting catastrophic failure chances

Fudge the numbers to make catastrophic (item-destroying) failures much
less likely than setback failures.
Also display the chance of a catastrophic failure in the UI.

src/character.h

@@ -3116,8 +3116,10 @@ class Character : public Creature, public visitable
          * @return a value >= 0.0 with >= 1.0 representing unequivocal success
          */
         float crafting_success_roll( const recipe &making ) const;
+        float crafting_failure_roll( const recipe &making ) const;
         float get_recipe_weighted_skill_average( const recipe &making ) const;
         float recipe_success_chance( const recipe &making ) const;
+        float item_destruction_chance( const recipe &making ) const;
         craft_roll_data recipe_success_roll_data( const recipe &making ) const;
         craft_roll_data recipe_failure_roll_data( const recipe &making ) const;
         void complete_craft( item &craft, const cata::optional<tripoint> &loc );

src/crafting.cpp

@@ -1158,6 +1158,16 @@ Character::craft_roll_data Character::recipe_success_roll_data( const recipe &ma
     return ret;
 }
 
+Character::craft_roll_data Character::recipe_failure_roll_data( const recipe &making ) const
+{
+    craft_roll_data data = recipe_success_roll_data( making );
+    // Fund the numbers for the outcomes we want
+    data.final_difficulty -= 1;
+    data.final_difficulty *= 0.25;
+    data.stddev *= 0.5;
+    return data;
+}
+
 float Character::crafting_success_roll( const recipe &making ) const
 {
     craft_roll_data data = recipe_success_roll_data( making );
@@ -1169,6 +1179,17 @@ float Character::crafting_success_roll( const recipe &making ) const
     return std::max( craft_roll - data.final_difficulty, 0.0f );
 }
 
+float Character::crafting_failure_roll( const recipe &making ) const
+{
+    craft_roll_data data = recipe_failure_roll_data( making );
+    float craft_roll = std::max( normal_roll( data.center, data.stddev ), 0.0 );
+
+    add_msg_debug( debugmode::DF_CHARACTER, "Crafting skill roll: %f, final difficulty %g", craft_roll,
+                   data.final_difficulty );
+
+    return std::max( craft_roll, 0.0f );
+}
+
 // Returns the area under a curve with provided standard deviation and center
 // from difficulty to positive to infinity. That is, the chance that a normal roll on
 // said curve will return a value of difficulty or greater.
@@ -1209,10 +1230,19 @@ float Character::recipe_success_chance( const recipe &making ) const
     // If that result is above 1, there is no chance of failure.
     craft_roll_data data = recipe_success_roll_data( making );
 
-
     return normal_roll_chance( data.center, data.stddev, 1.f + data.final_difficulty );
 }
 
+float Character::item_destruction_chance( const recipe &making ) const
+{
+    // If a normal roll with these parameters rolls over 1, we will not have a catastrophic failure
+    // If we roll under one, we will
+    craft_roll_data data = recipe_failure_roll_data( making );
+
+    // normal_roll_chance returns the chance that we roll over, we want the chance we roll under
+    return 1.f - normal_roll_chance( data.center, data.stddev, 1.f + data.final_difficulty );
+}
+
 int item::get_next_failure_point() const
 {
     if( !is_craft() ) {
@@ -1263,7 +1293,7 @@ bool item::handle_craft_failure( Character &crafter )
         return false;
     }
 
-    const double success_roll = crafter.crafting_success_roll( get_making() );
+    const double success_roll = crafter.crafting_failure_roll( get_making() );
     const int starting_components = this->components.size();
     // Destroy at most 75% of the components, always a chance of losing 1 though
     const size_t max_destroyed = std::max<size_t>( 1, components.size() * 3 / 4 );

src/crafting_gui.cpp

@@ -297,6 +297,23 @@ static std::string craft_success_chance_string( const recipe &recp, const Charac
     return string_format( _( "Minor Failure Chance: <color_%s>%2.2f</color>" ), color, chance );
 }
 
+static std::string cata_fail_chance_string( const recipe &recp, const Character &guy )
+{
+    float chance = 100.f * guy.item_destruction_chance( recp );
+    std::string color;
+    if( chance > 50 ) {
+        color = "i_red";
+    } else if( chance > 20 ) {
+        color = "red";
+    } else if( chance > 5 ) {
+        color = "yellow";
+    } else {
+        color = "light_gray";
+    }
+
+    return string_format( _( "Catastrophic Failure Chance: <color_%s>%2.2f</color>" ), color, chance );
+}
+
 
 static std::vector<std::string> recipe_info(
     const recipe &recp,
@@ -330,6 +347,7 @@ static std::vector<std::string> recipe_info(
     }
 
     oss << craft_success_chance_string( recp, guy ) << "\n";
+    oss << cata_fail_chance_string( recp, guy ) << "\n";
 
     if( !recp.is_nested() ) {
         const int expected_turns = guy.expected_time_to_craft( recp, batch_size )