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WaterResources.gms
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WaterResources.gms
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"Water resources"
Sets
t time(years) /2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2060, 2065, 2070, 2075, 2080, 2085, 2090, 2095, 2100, 2105, 2110, 2115, 2120, 2125, 2130, 2135, 2140, 2145, 2150, 2155, 2160, 2165, 2170, 2175, 2180, 2185, 2190, 2195, 2200 /
r regions / USA, CAN, WEU, JPK, ANZ, CEE, FSU, MDE, CAM, SAM, SAS, SEA, CHI,NAF, SSA, SIS/
c countries /UnitedStatesofAmerica, Canada, Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland,
Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, SanMarino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
UnitedKingdom, Japan, SouthKorea, Australia, NewZealand, Albania,
BosniaHerzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, CzechRepublic, Hungary,
Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Yugoslavia,
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, SaudiArabia, Syria, Turkey,
UnitedArabEmirates, Gaza, Yemen, Belize, CostaRica, ElSalvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, FrenchGuiana, Guyana,
Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, SriLanka, Brunei,
Cambodia, EastTimor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
PapuaNewGuinea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand,
Vietnam, China, HongKong, NorthKorea, Macau, Mongolia, Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, WesternSahara, Angola, Benin,
Botswana, BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Cameroon, CapeVerde,
CentralAfricanRepublic, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo-Kinshasa,
CotedIvoire, Djibouti, EquatorialGuinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho,
Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, SierraLeone, Somalia,
SouthAfrica, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, Antigua-Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda,
Comoros, Cuba, Dominica, DominicanRepublic, Fiji,
FrenchPolynesia, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica, Kiribati,
Maldives, MarshallIslands, Martinique, Mauritius, Micronesia,
Nauru, NetherlandsAntilles, NewCaledonia, Palau, PuertoRico,
Reunion, Samoa, SaoTome-Principe, Seychelles, SolomonIslands,
StKitts-Nevis, StLucia, StVincent-Grenadines, Tonga,
Trinidad-Tobago, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, VirginIslands
/
rcmap(*,*) regional map /
USA.(UnitedStatesofAmerica)
CAN.(Canada)
WEU.(Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein,
Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,
SanMarino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UnitedKingdom)
JPK.(Japan, SouthKorea)
ANZ.(Australia, NewZealand)
CEE.(Albania, BosniaHerzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,
CzechRepublic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Yugoslavia)
FSU.(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan)
MDE.(Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman,
Qatar, SaudiArabia, Syria, Turkey, UnitedArabEmirates, Gaza,
Yemen)
CAM.(Belize, CostaRica, ElSalvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Panama)
SAM.(Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador,
FrenchGuiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay,
Venezuela)
SAS.(Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan,
SriLanka)
SEA.(Brunei, Cambodia, EastTimor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, PapuaNewGuinea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan,
Thailand, Vietnam)
CHI.(China, HongKong, NorthKorea, Macau, Mongolia)
NAF.(Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, WesternSahara)
SSA.(Angola, Benin, Botswana, BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Cameroon,
CapeVerde, CentralAfricanRepublic, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville,
Congo-Kinshasa, CotedIvoire, Djibouti, EquatorialGuinea,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi,
Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,
Rwanda, Senegal, SierraLeone, Somalia, SouthAfrica, Sudan,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe)
SIS.(Antigua-Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Comoros,
Cuba, Dominica, DominicanRepublic, Fiji, FrenchPolynesia,
Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica, Kiribati, Maldives,
MarshallIslands, Martinique, Mauritius, Micronesia, Nauru,
NetherlandsAntilles, NewCaledonia, Palau, PuertoRico,
Reunion, Samoa, SaoTome-Principe, Seychelles,
SolomonIslands, StKitts-Nevis, StLucia,
StVincent-Grenadines, Tonga, Trinidad-Tobago, Tuvalu,
Vanuatu, VirginIslands)
/;
Parameters
W(t,r) " change in water resources in 1995 US dollar"
Alpha(r) "percent of 1990 GDP per degree celsius"
Y(t,r) "per capitia income"
Pop(t,r) "population size"
Temp(t) "mean global temp above pre-industrial degrees C "
Tau "technological progress in water supply and demand" / 0.005/
Beta "impacts response to economic growth" / 0.85/
N "impacts response to population growth" / 0.85/
Gamma "impacts response to warming" / 1/
TD(t,r) "damage duue to tropical storms 1995$ per year"
GDP(t,r) "gross domestic product 1995$ per year"
alpha_trop_storm(r) "current damage as fraction of GDP"
Y(t,r) "per capitia income"
Epsilon_trop_storm "income elasticity of storm damage" /-0.514/
delta_trop_storm "how much wind speed increase per degree warming" /0.04/
Temp_trop_storm(t,r) "temperature increase since pre-industrial time in degrees C"
gamma_trop_storm "the power of the wind in the cube of its speed" /3/
TM(t,r) "mortality due to Tropical Storms, in people per year"
Pop(t,r) "population size"
Beta_trop_storm(r) "current mortality as fraction of population"
Y(t,r) "per capita income 1995$ per person per year"
eta_trop_storm "income elasticity of storm damage" /-0.501/
delta_trop_storm "how much wind speed increase per degree warming" /0.04/
Temp_trop_storm(t,r) "temperature increase since pre-industrial time in degrees C"
gamma_trop_storm "the power of the wind in the cube of its speed" /3/
ETD(t,r) "damage from extra tropical storms"
GDP(t,r) "gross domestic product"
alpha_etrop_storm (r) "benchmark damage from extratropical cyclones for juust region"
Y(t,r) "per capita income"
epsilon_etrop_storm "income elasticity of extra tropical storm damages" / -0.514/
delta_etrop_storm (r) "storm sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations for juust region"
CO2_con (t) "atmospheric CO2 concentrations.. time t, region???"
CO2_pre "CO2 concentrations in pre-industrial era"
gamma_etrop_storm " is a param?? help get right shape maybe" /1/
ETM(t,r) "mortality from extratropical cyclones"
Pop(t,r) "population"
beta_etrop_storm(r) " benchmark mortality from extratropical cyclones JUST FOR REGION"
Y(t,r) "per capita income"
psi_etrop_storm "income elasticity of extra tropical storm mortality" /-0.501/
delta_etrop_storm (r) "storm sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations for juust region"
CO2_con (t) "atmospheric CO2 concentrations.. time t, region???"
CO2_pre "CO2 concentrations in pre-industrial era"
gamma_etrop_storm " is a param?? help get right shape maybe" /1/
table alpha(r) param defining benchmark impact of 1 degree C of warming on Water Resources
1dgre C wrmng H20
USA -0.000650 (0.000650)
CAN -0.000570 (0.000570)
WEU -0.000270 (0.000270)
JPK 0.000003 (0.000003)
ANZ 0.000003 (0.000003)
EEU -0.006970 (0.006970)
FSU -0.027540 (0.027540)
MDE -0.001330 (0.001330)
CAM -0.001300 (0.001300)
SAM -0.001400 (0.001400)
SAS -0.001560 (0.001560)
SEA -0.003140 (0.003140)
CHI 0.005690 (0.005690)
NAF -0.009020 (0.009020)
SSA -0.003600 (0.003600)
SIS -0.001300 (0.001300)
;
table alpha_trop_storm(r)
alpha_trop
USA 0.001469567
CAN 7.35509E-06
WEU 1.72941E-08
JPK 0.000328676
ANZ 0.000100282
EEU 0
FSU 1.71639E-05
MDE 0
CAM 0.0017726
SAM 1.3063E-05
SAS 0.000936454
SEA 0.000414319
CHI 0.001972917
NAF 0
SSA 5.91057E-05
SIS 0.00573135
;
table beta_trop_storm(r)
beta_trop
USA 3.90602E-07
CAN 4.8608E-09
WEU 2.12624E-09
JPK 5.43398E-07
ANZ 6.68407E-08
EEU 0
FSU 7.09183E-09
MDE 1.39312E-09
CAM 8.21967E-06
SAM 2.36703E-08
SAS 6.91678E-06
SEA 2.39815E-06
CHI 2.86767E-07
NAF 0
SSA 1.43921E-07
SIS 4.91454E-06
;
table alpha_etrop_storm (r)
alpha_etrop
USA 0.000120686
CAN 0.000169725
WEU 0.000209185
JPK 1.04096E-05
ANZ 0.000276264
EEU 4.58675E-05
FSU 4.4056E-05
MDE 1.56247E-05
CAM 4.4056E-05
SAM 3.57676E-06
SAS 0.000550631
SEA 6.27064E-05
CHI 0.000167734
NAF 2.81278E-07
SSA 0.000550631
SIS 0.000426887
;
table Beta_etrop_storm(r)
beta_etrop
USA 0.2912144
CAN 0.063117456
WEU 0.121209462
JPK 0.114939831
ANZ 0.116317932
EEU 0.050081393
FSU 0.12684268
MDE 0.052986905
CAM 0.12684268
SAM 0.046527794
SAS 0.204864801
SEA 0.08572204
CHI 0.114203457
NAF 0.038346516
SSA 0.204864801
SIS 1.577927496
;
table delta_etrop_storm(r)
delta_etrop
USA 0.04
CAN 0.04
WEU 0.04
JPK 0.04
ANZ 0.21
EEU 0.04
FSU 0.04
MDE 0.04
CAM 0.04
SAM 0.21
SAS 0.21
SEA 0.04
CHI 0.04
NAF 0.04
SSA 0.04
SIS 0.13
;
table pop(t,r) in thousands
USA CAN WEU JPK ANZ CEE FSU MDE CAM SAM SAS SEA CHI NAF SSA SIS
2010 312247 34126 19421 175807 26773 14385 21549 106676 11196 245741 180240 15845 1391371 121179 31028 549
2015 325128 35871 19822 176568 28519 14129 21862 116603 11775 256837 193194 17278 1434055 131656 35756 583
2020 337983 37612 20164 176151 30254 13859 22048 126328 12296 266850 206055 18687 1466183 141659 40969 612
2025 350626 39185 20482 174858 31941 13561 22072 135527 12732 275743 218319 20015 1483032 150615 46583 638
2030 362629 40617 20758 172815 33544 13224 21933 143945 13096 283273 229461 21198 1487901 158574 52638 660
2035 373468 41885 20988 170088 35072 12834 21702 152019 13368 289338 239287 22312 1483531 165899 59028 678
2040 383165 43042 21185 166787 36565 12403 21420 159780 13557 293934 247645 23375 1470589 172789 65647 693
2045 392111 44144 21357 163139 38048 11954 21069 167105 13665 297071 254392 24354 1449214 179145 72403 703
2050 400853 45228 21505 159364 39513 11503 20633 173769 13691 298764 259479 25202 1420056 184670 79241 712
2055 409370 46212 21609 155502 40864 11062 20129 179583 13652 299081 263114 25917 1385392 189160 86104 719
2060 417764 47114 21691 151465 42093 10634 19597 184485 13550 298101 265322 26506 1348011 192596 92874 723
2065 425909 47941 21777 147237 43211 10217 19061 188480 13393 295927 266107 26971 1310766 195127 99432 726
2070 433489 48693 21881 142973 44231 9815 18534 191631 13187 292728 265456 27317 1274735 196939 105690 727
2075 440248 49349 21994 138932 45147 9435 18020 194106 12937 288721 263457 27543 1239594 198217 111558 727
2080 446113 49896 22099 135386 45944 9086 17538 196097 12653 284127 260306 27659 1206478 199074 116984 724
2085 451196 50329 22181 132306 46597 8777 17106 197854 12351 279218 256314 27649 1178482 199530 121905 720
2090 455588 50644 22242 129618 47106 8515 16727 199519 12055 274229 251800 27592 1156166 199497 126277 715
2095 459254 50834 22273 127214 47473 8298 16383 201033 11785 269281 247082 27486 1136758 198879 130073 710
2100 462070 50882 22272 125019 47684 8124 16056 202163 11551 264479 242357 27354 1117507 197726 133306 704
;
table GDP(t,r) GDP per capita (USD$)
USA CAN WEU JPK ANZ CEE FSU MDE CAM SAM SAS SEA CHI NAF SSA SIS
2010 48377 47465 118691 65269 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000
2015 56275 51068 129691 82105 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000 30000
2020 65246 48909 151832 104460 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
2025 75646 46842 181475 133196 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
2030 87705 44862 220117 170223 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000
2035 101686 42965 269697 218042 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000
2040 117895 41149 332699 279947 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000
2045 136689 39409 412276 360271 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000
2050 158478 37743 512406 464734 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000
2055 183741 36147 638093 600895 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000 70000
2060 213031 34619 795614 778762 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000
2065 246990 33156 992836 1011606 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000
2070 286362 31754 1239606 1317053 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000
2075 332011 30412 1548244 1718542 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000 90000
2080 384936 29126 1934158 2247284 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
2085 446298 27895 2416614 2944896 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000
2090 517442 26715 3019697 3866924 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000
2095 000027 25586 3773510 5087596 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000 110000
2100 695560 24504 4715686 6706197 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000 120000
;
;
Equations
W(t+1,r) = min( Alpha(r)*Y("0",r)* (1- Tau)**(t-2000)*(Y(t,r)/Y("0",r))**Beta*(Pop(t,r)/Pop("0", r)**N*(Temp(t)/1.0)**gamma), Y(time,r)/10 );
TD(t+1,r) = alpha_trop_storm(r)* GDP(t,r) * ((Y(t,r)/Y("0",r))**epsilon_trop_storm) * [(1+ delta_trop_storm * Temp_trop_storm)**gamma_trop_storm -1] ;
TM(t+1,r) = beta_trop_storm(r)* pop(t,r) * ((Y(t,r)/Y("0",r))**eta_trop_storm) * [(1+ delta_trop_storm * Temp_trop_storm)**gamma_trop_storm -1] ;
ETD(t+1,r) = alpha_etrop_storm(r) * GDP(t,r) * ((Y(t,r)/Y("0",r))**epsilon_etrop_storm) * delta_etrop_storm * [(CO2_con(t)/CO2_pre)**gamma_etrop_storm -1] ;
ETM(t+1,r) = beta_etrop_storm(r)* pop(t,r) * ((Y(t,r)/Y("0",r))** psi_etrop_storm) * delta_etrop_storm * [(CO2_con(t)/CO2_pre)**gamma_etrop_storm -1]