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To compute a posterior distribution and construct a credible interval, we define a prior distribution with mean 0% and standard error 3.5%, which can be interpreted as follows: before seeing polling data, we don't think any candidate has the advantage, and a difference of up to 7% either way is possible. We compute the posterior distribution using the equations above:
From this line of code: B <- sigma^2 / (sigma^2 + tau^2), we know that sigma is defined as $\sqrt{\sigma^2 / n}$, then isn't it wrong to use sigma for posterior_se <- sqrt(1/(1/sigma^2 + 1/tau^2))?
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
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To compute a posterior distribution and construct a credible interval, we define a prior distribution with mean 0% and standard error 3.5%, which can be interpreted as follows: before seeing polling data, we don't think any candidate has the advantage, and a difference of up to 7% either way is possible. We compute the posterior distribution using the equations above:
From this line of code:$\sqrt{\sigma^2 / n}$ , then isn't it wrong to use
B <- sigma^2 / (sigma^2 + tau^2)
, we know thatsigma
is defined assigma
forposterior_se <- sqrt(1/(1/sigma^2 + 1/tau^2))
?The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: