NatCat modelling

####The probabilistic model behind the ECA methodology step 2

• Hypothetical portfolio containing 1'000 assets (buildings). We assume that the risk assessment tool only contains 12 potential events over a projected period of 200 years.
• The hazard module generates the expected intensity (VII) for event no.1 at asset no.1.
• The damage function provides us with the mean damage ratio (MDR) for given hazard intensity (4 stands for 4% of the asset's value). Multiplication of MDR and asset value (1'000'000) results in damage (40'000).
• Above steps are performed on all 1'000 assets in the portfolio. The sum of all damages produces the total damage from event no.1, i.e. event damage no1.
• All above steps are then repeated for the other (11) events in the event set.
• Upon completion of all these stages in the modeling process, a list of all event damage is produced, upon which damage statistics can be derived (average damage, max damage…).
  ^{Source of concept: Swiss Re, Natural catastrophes and reinsurance}

####Example: Cyclone Sidr (2007) hitting Bangladesh (https://vimeo.com/198389316) Modelled with the open source natural catastrophe model climada. climada (**clim**ate **ada**ptation). Assets coloured green to blue, tropical cyclone windspeed grey to red, resulting simulated damage orange to red.

####Example: Hurricane Andrew (1992) hitting Southern tip of Florida ^{https://vimeo.com/198387839} (https://vimeo.com/198387839) Modelled with the open source natural catastrophe model climada. climada (**clim**ate **ada**ptation). Assets coloured green to blue, tropical cyclone windspeed grey to red, resulting simulated damage orange to red.

####Next steps Read the [introduction](Home) and find out what climada and ECA is. Are you ready to start adapting? [Get started!](Getting-started)