references.bib

@Preamble{ " \newcommand{\noop}[1]{} " }


@book{Krainski2018,
  title={{Advanced spatial modeling with stochastic partial differential equations using R and INLA}},
  author={Krainski, Elias and G{\'o}mez-Rubio, Virgilio and Bakka, Haakon and Lenzi, Amanda and Castro-Camilo, Daniela and Simpson, Daniel and Lindgren, Finn and Rue, H{\aa}vard},
  year={2018},
  note={\url{https://becarioprecario.bitbucket.io/spde-gitbook/}},
  publisher={Chapman and Hall/CRC}
}

@article{Laxton2023,
author = {Laxton, Megan R. and Rodríguez de Rivera, Óscar and Soriano-Redondo, Andrea and Illian, Janine B.},
title = {Balancing structural complexity with ecological insight in Spatio-temporal species distribution models},
journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
volume = {14},
number = {1},
pages = {162-172},
keywords = {INLA, marked point process, spatio-temporal model, species distribution model},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13957},
year = {2023}
}


@article{Castel2023,
  title={Disentangling the factors of spatio-temporal patterns of wildfire activity in south-eastern France},
  author={Castel-Clavera, Jorge and Pimont, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Opitz, Thomas and Ruffault, Julien and Rivi{\`e}re, Miguel and Dupuy, Jean-Luc},
  journal={International journal of wildland fire},
  volume={32},
  number={1},
  pages={15--28},
  year={2023},
  publisher={CSIRO Publishing}
}


@article{Bedia2014,
AUTHOR = {Bedia, J. and Herrera, S. and Guti\'errez, J. M.},
TITLE = {Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain},
JOURNAL = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
VOLUME = {14},
YEAR = {2014},
NUMBER = {1},
PAGES = {53--66},
URL = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/53/2014/},
DOI = {10.5194/nhess-14-53-2014}
}

@article{LegrandOpitz2023,
    author = {Legrand, Juliette and Opitz, Thomas},
    title = "{Juliette Legrand and Thomas Opitz’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘The First Discussion Meeting on Statistical aspects of climate change’}",
    journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics},
    volume = {72},
    number = {4},
    pages = {858-859},
    year = {2023},
    month = {06},
    doi = {10.1093/jrsssc/qlad054}
}

@article{wagner1977,
  title={Conditions for the start and spread of crown fire},
  author={{van Wagner}, C. E.},
  journal={Canadian Journal of Forest Research},
  volume={7},
  number={1},
  pages={23--34},
  year={1977},
  publisher={NRC Research Press Ottawa, Canada}
}

@article{wang2017,
  title={cffdrs: an R package for the Canadian forest fire danger rating system},
  author={Wang, Xianli and Wotton, B Mike and Cantin, Alan S and Parisien, Marc-Andr{\'e} and Anderson, Kerry and Moore, Brett and Flannigan, Mike D},
  journal={Ecological Processes},
  volume={6},
  pages={1--11},
  year={2017},
  publisher={Springer}
}

@article{vidal201050,
  title={A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the {SAFRAN} system},
  author={Vidal, Jean-Philippe and Martin, Eric and Franchist{\'e}guy, Laurent and Baillon, Martine and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel},
  journal={International journal of climatology},
  volume={30},
  number={11},
  pages={1627--1644},
  year={2010},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}


@ARTICLE{Guillot2022,
AUTHOR={Guillot, Gilles and Arab, Ali and Illian, Janine Bärbel and Dray, Stéphane},   
TITLE={Editorial: Advances in Statistical Ecology: New Methods and Software},      
JOURNAL={Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
VOLUME={9},  
YEAR={2022},      	
DOI={10.3389/fevo.2021.828919},      	
ISSN={2296-701X}   
}

@article{Soriano2019,
author = {Soriano-Redondo, Andrea and Jones-Todd, Charlotte M. and Bearhop, Stuart and Hilton, Geoff M. and Lock, Leigh and Stanbury, Andrew and Votier, Stephen C. and Illian, Janine B.},
title = {Understanding species distribution in dynamic populations: a new approach using spatio-temporal point process models},
journal = {Ecography},
volume = {42},
number = {6},
pages = {1092-1102},
keywords = {point process models, spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process, species distribution models},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03771},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecog.03771},
eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.03771},
year = {2019}
}



@article{Illian2013,
author = {Illian, Janine B. and Martino, Sara and Sørbye, Sigrunn H. and Gallego-Fernández, Juan B. and Zunzunegui, María and Esquivias, M. Paz and Travis, Justin M. J.},
title = {Fitting complex ecological point process models with integrated nested Laplace approximation},
journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
pages = {305-315},
keywords = {marked point patterns, spatial modelling, log-Gaussian Cox processes},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12017},
url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/2041-210x.12017},
eprint = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210x.12017},
year = {2013}
}



@article{Illian2012,
author = {Janine B. Illian and Sigrunn H. S{\o}rbye and H{\aa}vard Rue},
title = {{A toolbox for fitting complex spatial point process models using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)}},
volume = {6},
journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
number = {4},
publisher = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
pages = {1499 -- 1530},
keywords = {Cox processes, marked point patterns, model assessment, model comparison},
year = {2012},
doi = {10.1214/11-AOAS530},
URL = {https://doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS530}
}


@article{Riviere2022,
author = {Riviere, M. and Pimont, F. and Delacote, P. and Caurla, S. and Ruffault, J. and Lobianco, A. and Opitz, T. and Dupuy, J. L.},
title = {A Bioeconomic Projection of Climate-Induced Wildfire Risk in the Forest Sector},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {10},
number = {4},
pages = {e2021EF002433},
keywords = {forest fire, integrated model, climate change, uncertainty, firelihood, forest sector},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002433},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021EF002433},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2021EF002433},
note = {e2021EF002433 2021EF002433},
abstract = {Abstract Under the influence of climate change, wildfire regimes are expected to intensify and expand to new areas, increasing threats to natural and socioeconomic assets. We explore the environmental and economic implications for the forest sector of climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes. To retain genericity while considering local determinants, we focus on the regional level and take Mediterranean France as an example. Coupling a bioeconomic forest sector model and a model of wildfire activity, we perform spatially explicit simulations under various levels of radiative forcing. By using a probabilistic framework, we also assess the propagation of several sources of uncertainty to the forest sector, considering both climate-induced uncertainty and the intrinsic stochasticity of the fire process. By the end of the century, summer burned areas increase by up to 55\%, causing moderate losses of merchantable timber and forest carbon stocks, with cascading impacts for industrial activities and climate mitigation in the forest sector. Implications for industries remain limited, but we observe price increases, especially for softwoods, as well as spatially differentiated changes in producer welfare. Inter-annual fluctuations explain most of uncertainty in wildfire activity, but their impacts on the forest sector are quickly dampened. Over time, owing to the cumulative nature of wildfire impacts on forest resources, uncertainty related to climate warming, climate models’ response and stochasticity intrinsic to the wildfire phenomenon strongly increase in relative importance. Results reassert the need to consider multiple futures in prospective assessments, including uncertainty inherent to natural processes, often omitted in large-scale economic assessments.},
year = {2022}
}



@article{Abatzoglou2019,
author = {Abatzoglou, John T. and Williams, A. Park and Barbero, Renaud},
title = {Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {46},
number = {1},
pages = {326-336},
keywords = {fire, climate change, natural variability, climate modeling},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080959},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL080959},
abstract = {Abstract Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land-cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22\% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty-first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62\% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human-caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.},
year = {2019}
}



@article{Rue2009,
author = {Rue, Håvard and Martino, Sara and Chopin, Nicolas},
title = {Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
volume = {71},
number = {2},
pages = {319-392},
keywords = {Approximate Bayesian inference, Gaussian Markov random fields, Generalized additive mixed models, Laplace approximation, Parallel computing, Sparse matrices, Structured additive regression models},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x},
url = {https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x},
eprint = {https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x},
year = {2009}
}

@article{Pimont2021,
author = {Pimont, François and Fargeon, Héléne and Opitz, Thomas and Ruffault, Julien and Barbero, Renaud and Martin-StPaul, Nicolas and Rigolot, Eric and Riviere, Miguel and Dupuy, Jean-Luc},
title = {Prediction of regional wildfire activity in the probabilistic Bayesian framework of Firelihood},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
volume = {31},
number = {5},
pages = {e02316},
keywords = {Bayesian, fire, Firelihood, fire weather, INLA, Mediterranean, spatiotemporal},
doi = {10.1002/eap.2316},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.2316},
eprint = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.2316},
year = {2021}
}

@article{Rodrigues2023,
title = {Drivers and implications of the extreme 2022 wildfire season in Southwest Europe},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {859},
pages = {160320},
year = {2023},
issn = {0048-9697},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160320},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722074204},
author = {Marcos Rodrigues and Àngel {Cunill Camprubí} and Rodrigo Balaguer-Romano and Celso J. {Coco Megía} and Francisco Castañares and Julien Ruffault and Paulo M. Fernandes and Víctor {Resco de Dios}},
keywords = {Burned area, Global warming, Fuel, Protected areas, Wildfire season, Risk management}
}

@misc{Richards2022,
  doi = {10.48550/ARXIV.2208.07581},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07581},
  author = {Richards, Jordan and Huser, Raphaël},
  keywords = {Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG), Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Computer and information sciences},
  title = {Regression modelling of spatiotemporal extreme U.S. wildfires via partially-interpretable neural networks},
  publisher = {arXiv},
  year = {2022},
  copyright = {Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International}
}


@article{Koh2021,
author = {Jonathan Koh and Fran{\c{c}}ois Pimont and Jean-Luc Dupuy and Thomas Opitz},
title = {{Spatiotemporal wildfire modeling through point processes with moderate and extreme marks}},
volume = {17},
journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
number = {1},
publisher = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
pages = {560 -- 582},
keywords = {Bayesian hierarchical model, Cox process, extreme-value theory, forest fires, shared random effects},
year = {2023},
doi = {10.1214/22-AOAS1642},
URL = {https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AOAS1642}
}

@article{Opitz2020,
title = {Point-process based Bayesian modeling of space–time structures of forest fire occurrences in Mediterranean France},
journal = {Spatial Statistics},
volume = {40},
pages = {100429},
year = {2020},
note = {Space-Time Modeling of Rare Events and Environmental Risks: METMA Conference},
issn = {2211-6753},
doi = {10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100429},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211675320300233},
author = {Thomas Opitz and Florent Bonneu and Edith Gabriel},
keywords = {Integrated nested Laplace approximation, Log-Gaussian Cox process, SPDE approach, Wildfires}
}

@misc{Richards2022_2,
  doi = {10.48550/ARXIV.2212.01796},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.01796},
  author = {Richards, Jordan and Huser, Raphaël and Bevacqua, Emanuele and Zscheischler, Jakob},
  keywords = {Applications (stat.AP), Machine Learning (stat.ML), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Computer and information sciences},
  title = {Insights into the drivers and spatio-temporal trends of extreme Mediterranean wildfires with statistical deep-learning},
  publisher = {arXiv},
  year = {2022},
  copyright = {Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International}
}




@article{Fuglstad2019,
author = {Geir-Arne Fuglstad and Daniel Simpson and Finn Lindgren and Håvard Rue},
title = {Constructing Priors that Penalize the Complexity of Gaussian Random Fields},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume = {114},
number = {525},
pages = {445-452},
year  = {2019},
publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
doi = {10.1080/01621459.2017.1415907}
}

@article{moller1998log,
  title={Log gaussian cox processes},
  author={M{\o}ller, Jesper and Syversveen, Anne Randi and Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge},
  journal={Scandinavian journal of statistics},
  volume={25},
  number={3},
  pages={451--482},
  year={1998},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
} 


@article{Besag1975,
 ISSN = {00390526, 14679884},
 URL = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2987782},
 abstract = {A Markovian approach to the specification of spatial stochastic interaction for irregularly distributed data points is reviewed. Three specific methods of statistical analysis are proposed; the first two are generally applicable whilst the third relates only to "normally" distributed variables. Some reservations are expressed and the need for practical investigations is emphasized.},
 author = {Julian Besag},
 journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician)},
 number = {3},
 pages = {179--195},
 publisher = {[Royal Statistical Society, Wiley]},
 title = {Statistical Analysis of Non-Lattice Data},
 urldate = {2023-02-09},
 volume = {24},
 year = {1975}
}

@article{Tierney1986Laplace,
author = { Luke   Tierney  and  Joseph B.   Kadane },
title = {Accurate Approximations for Posterior Moments and Marginal Densities},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume = {81},
number = {393},
pages = {82-86},
year  = {1986},
publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
doi = {10.1080/01621459.1986.10478240},
URL = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478240},
eprint = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478240}
}


@article{pereira2013quantification,
  title={Quantification of annual wildfire risk; A spatio-temporal point process approach.},
  author={Pereira, Paula and Turkman, Kamil Feridun and Turkman, Maria Ant{\'o}nia Amaral and S{\'a}, Ana and Pereira, Jos{\'e} MC},
  journal={Statistica},
  volume={73},
  number={1},
  pages={55--68},
  year={2013}
} 

@article{verdoy2020spatio,
  title={Spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian analysis of wildfires with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations. A case study from Valencian Community (Spain)},
  author={Verdoy, Pablo Juan},
  journal={Journal of applied statistics},
  volume={47},
  number={5},
  pages={927--946},
  year={2020},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
} 

@article{Lindgren2011SPDE,
author = {Lindgren, Finn and Rue, Håvard and Lindström, Johan},
title = {An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
volume = {73},
number = {4},
pages = {423-498},
keywords = {Approximate Bayesian inference, Covariance functions, Gaussian fields, Gaussian Markov random fields, Latent Gaussian models, Sparse matrices, Stochastic partial differential equations},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x},
url = {https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x},
eprint = {https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2011.00777.x},
year = {2011}
}

@article{serra2014spatio,
  title={Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994--2008},
  author={Serra, Laura and Saez, Marc and Mateu, Jorge and Varga, Diego and Juan, Pablo and Diaz-{\'A}valos, Carlos and Rue, H{\aa}vard},
  journal={Environmental and ecological statistics},
  volume={21},
  pages={531--563},
  year={2014},
  publisher={Springer}
} 


@article{diaz2016modeling,
  title={Modeling fire size of wildfires in 
  lon (Spain), using spatiotemporal marked point processes},
  author={D{\'\i}az-Avalos, Carlos and Juan, Pablo and Serra-Saurina, Laura},
  journal={Forest ecology and management},
  volume={381},
  pages={360--369},
  year={2016},
  publisher={Elsevier}
} 

@Article{Quinlan2021,
author={Quinlan, Jos{\'e} J.
and D{\'i}az-Avalos, Carlos
and Mena, Rams{\'e}s H.},
title={Modeling wildfires via marked spatio-temporal Poisson processes},
journal={Environmental and Ecological Statistics},
year={2021},
month={Sep},
day={01},
volume={28},
number={3},
pages={549-565},
issn={1573-3009},
doi={10.1007/s10651-021-00497-1},
url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-021-00497-1}
}

@article{Taylor2014,
author = {Benjamin M. Taylor and Peter J. Diggle},
title = {INLA or MCMC? A tutorial and comparative evaluation for spatial prediction in log-Gaussian Cox processes},
journal = {Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation},
volume = {84},
number = {10},
pages = {2266-2284},
year  = {2014},
publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
doi = {10.1080/00949655.2013.788653},
URL = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2013.788653},
eprint = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2013.788653}}