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Support multiple choice forecasts #23

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omarkohl opened this issue Nov 5, 2022 · 3 comments
Closed

Support multiple choice forecasts #23

omarkohl opened this issue Nov 5, 2022 · 3 comments

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@omarkohl
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omarkohl commented Nov 5, 2022

This is currently only planned for after the release 1.0, but they are in fact really useful. For example to forecast on PredictionBook what an exam result will be (out of 5 possible outcomes) I need to create five different forecasts and need to manually ensure that the total probability among them adds up to 100.

It would be much nicer to do it like this:

What grade will I get in my exam?

  • Grade A (20%)
  • Grade B (30%)
  • Grace C (40%)
  • Pass below C (5%)
  • Fail (5%)

If later adjusting the probability for "Grade B" all the other probabilities could either shift automatically or before being able to save the user would need to ensure that everything adds up to 100.

@omarkohl
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omarkohl commented Dec 9, 2022

I decided to include this in 1.0 . The first step was implemented in ade3085 .

@omarkohl
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Related to #87

@omarkohl
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Multiple choice forecast are as well supported as binary forecasts right now i.e. specifying the probabilities (estimate) is missing, which is tracked in #87. Therefore this issue can be considered done.

@omarkohl omarkohl added this to v0.1.0 Jan 9, 2023
@github-project-automation github-project-automation bot moved this to Todo in v0.1.0 Jan 9, 2023
@omarkohl omarkohl moved this from Todo to Done in v0.1.0 Jan 9, 2023
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