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HindsightCanBe5050.md

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Hindsight can be 50/50

Author

Jay Freeman - @saurik

Why is this important

If we don't learn from our mistakes, we'll repeat them.

"History is a greek word which means, literally, just investigation." Arnold Toynbee

The Fall of the Roman Empire

  • Why did it fall?
    • Corrupt Government
    • Rising Christianity
    • Invading Barbarians
    • Arrival of the Huns
    • No More Children
    • The Eastern Empire
    • Hired Mercenaries
    • Logistics Nightmare
    • Economic Troubles
    • Two Major Plagues
    • High Unemployment
    • No Technological Advancement
    • Lead Poisoning
    • ... ROME NEVER FELL?
      • The Byzantine Empire is really a construction. It thought of itself as the Roman Empire. Its people thought of themselves as the Romans.

What is history?

  • "History is an agreed upon fable."

The Fall of Microsoft - The Fable of Internet Explorer

  • MS didn't care about web standards
  • IE was unrelated to Windows
  • MS didn't care about the web at all
  • MS pushed for proprietary scripting
Breaking that down
  • "MS didn't care about web standards"
    • Actually, Netscape was the one who began ignoring new standards more and more.
  • "IE was unrelated to Windows"
    • Actually it was integrated into the whole OS.
  • "MS didn't care about the web at all"
    • Actually their plan had been to connect all their products and services through the internet.

Google as Microsoft

  • Android as Closed Source
    • Google stopped even trying to develop the Android Open Source project "in public"
    • Googled pushed everything to Play services
    • Google has been replacing the stock apps
    • Antitrust lawsuits

The Fall of Jailbreak

  • The factors
    • iOS started to feel more complete to users
    • Apple started throwing in the kitchen sink (after Jobs died)
    • Apple decided to prioritize fixing OS bugs
    • the core Jailbreak community left long ago
    • the remaining had a bad sense of humor
    • the developer community had a "death spiral"
  • Jailbreak, in hindsight
    • the user community was reliant on teenagers
    • few of the users actually shared the vision
    • Saurik's personal strategy "was, like, non-sensical"
    • likely should not have done r/jailbreak
    • might've maintained more personal space from community (?)

Culture

The history of humanity is a race between education and catastrophe.

Failures of Federated Protocols

New Mission: Orchid