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前言
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1. 五个入门结论
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2. 学会换位思考
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3. 迭代剔除和中心选民定理
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4. 足球比赛和商业合作的最佳对策
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5. 纳什均衡：坏风气与银行挤兑
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6. 纳什均衡：约会与古诺模型
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7. 纳什均衡：伯川模型与选民投票
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8. 纳什均衡：立场选择、种族隔离
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9. 混合策略：网球比赛
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10. 混合策略：棒球、约合与付税
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11. 进化稳定：合作、冲突与平衡
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13. 顺序游戏：道德风险、奖励和饥饿狮子
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14. 落后的感应：间谍与先手优势
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15. 落后的感应：道德风险、战略和可信威胁
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16. 落后的感应：声誉和决斗
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17. 最后通牒和讨价还价
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18. 信息集和子博弈完美
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19. 招商引资和战略投资
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20. 战争的消耗
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21. 合作
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22. 作弊、惩罚与外包
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23. 沉默、信令和教育
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24. 拍卖和获奖者的诅咒
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术语表
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<a href="." >13. 顺序游戏：道德风险、奖励和饥饿狮子</a>
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<h1 id="lecture-13">Lecture 13</h1>
<p>与前面的博弈不同：这个博弈不是同时进行的，是有顺序的，也称为 sequential move game.</p>
<p>并且之前都是通过矩阵表示收益的，现在使用树形图来进行表示。</p>
<h2 id="有关借方和贷方的博弈">有关借方和贷方的博弈</h2>
<p><img src="L13/p1.png" alt=""></p>
<p>进行决策的关键在于预测！</p>
<p><strong>从树的叶子进行倒推。</strong>backward induction.</p>
<p><div class="alert alert-success" style="display: table"><i class="fa fa-check" style="float: left; padding: 5px"></i><div style="margin-left: 32px"><p>如果玩家1选择放入3$，那么他将承担道德风险。</p>
</div></div></p>
<p>激励设计：将原来(3, 2)收益变成(1.9, 3.1)，这样就能朝着最好的方向发展。</p>
<p>激励设计：大蛋糕的一小部分可能会比小蛋糕的一大部分大。</p>
<p>但是上面依旧存在着一些问题，尽管绝对值大了，但是<strong>投资收益比</strong>还是小的，得看注重什么方面。</p>
<h2 id="1066">1066</h2>
<p><img src="L13/p2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>诺曼底登陆。</p>
<p>Norman入侵英国(Sax)。一开始Norman选择是烧船破釜沉舟或者是不烧船。</p>
<p>通过减少自己的选择（<strong>并且一定要让对手知道</strong>），从而对对手产生影响。</p>
<p><strong>Backward induction is the most important thing.</strong></p>
<h2 id="lion-game">Lion Game</h2>
<p>backward induction使用的典型例子。</p>
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