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<title>Is the United States truly in decline?</title>
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<h1>Is the United States truly in decline?</h1>
<div class="article-meta">
<span><img src="assets/article-meta/read-time.svg"><p>~20m read</p></span>
<span><img src="assets/article-meta/publish-date.svg"><p>Not published</p></span>
<span><img src="assets/article-meta/author.svg"><p>Cristian Moisei</p></span>
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<p>The United States has often been a fertile ground for momentous ideas with far reaching consequences. The American Revolution and its unequivocal rejection of autocracy paved the way for many other societies to become republics. The global trade system established at Bretton Woods and the world order that the Americans championed and defended have improved living standards across the world and lifted millions out of poverty. At the same time, this is a nation that fought a bloody civil war before it could abolish slavery, and whose numerous interventions abroad have destabilised entire countries and resulted in millions of deaths.</p>
<p>The nation has weathered turbulent chapters and proven its resilience before, but many are wondering whether things are different this time and there are broader signs of decline. This article will analyse key data pertaining to the nation's health and will explore potential future scenarios.</p>
<div class="table-of-contents">
<h2>Table of contents</h2>
<ol>
<h4 onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Global indicators</h4>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Share of global GDP</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Perception abroad</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Trade deficit</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Military power</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<h4 onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Domestic indicators</h4>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Purchasing power</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Inequality</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Demographic pressure</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">National debt</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Crime</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Suicide & substance abuse</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Homelessness</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Political division</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Church membership</li>
<li onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Infrastructure and geography</li>
<h4 onClick="scrollToSection(this.innerHTML)">Conclusion</h4>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="section-title">Global indicators</h3>
<h3>Share of global GDP</h3>
<p>At the end of the Second World War, the United States was the only advanced economy left standing, with the rest of the world either ravaged by war or lacking the production capabilities to be a serious competitor. This gave Americans unprecedented economic power, a leading role in deciding the future of the global financial system, and the opportunity to benefit from the reconstruction of the world.</p>
<p>According to British economist Paul Kennedy, the relative economic power of the United States is precisely the reason it enjoyed all these benefits. In his book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Kennedy argues that the bigger the share of global GDP a nation has, the easier it will be for it to achieve its global goals without overstretching its military and resources, while still investing at home and maintaining prosperity.</p>
<p>Today, not only is the U.S.' share of global GDP decreasing, but that of its main economic rival, China, is increasing.</p>
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<h3>Perception abroad</h3>
<p>Like most nations, the United States' reputation abroad will fluctuate over time and will vary across countries. There are nonetheless broad trends that can be observed:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The president and his foreign policies have a large impact on perception abroad. The 2003 Iraq war strained relationships with western allies and, it took until Obama's presidency for opinions to recover. Trump's presidency again damaged the country's reputation, while Biden's election has restored optimism.</p></li>
<li><p>The U.S. is respected for its technological achievements, entertainment, military and universities, but seen negatively when it comes to standards of living and health care. It is seen as a somewhat reliable partner, but no longer considered a model for democracy.</p></li>
<li><p>China's perception in the same countries is much worse, with an average of just 23% viewing it favourably in 2020.</p></li> <!-- https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/30/chinas-international-image-remains-broadly-negative-as-views-of-the-u-s-rebound/ -->
</ul>
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<h3>Trade deficit</h3>
<p>When it comes to trade, the U.S. is running a surplus for services and a large deficit for goods. This could be regarded as the nation making better use of its comparative advantage for services and growing wealthier after abandoning the limitations of the Bretton Woods system and the gold standard in 1971. At the same time, this approach also results in stagnant wages for the middle class, the reduction of domestic manufacturing and increased inequality.</p>
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<p>Over the last decades, changes to the landscape of global trade and its players have also been substantial. The value of total exports grew from $382.6 billion in 1970 to $22 trillion in 2020. In that same period, the U.S. went from 15% of all exports to 9%, while China, after joining the WTO, grew its share of global exports from 0.6% to 12%.</p>
<table>
<tr class="bold">
<td>Percentage of global exports</td>
<td class="narrow-row">1970</td>
<td class="narrow-row">2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>China</td>
<td class="narrow-row">0.6%</td>
<td class="narrow-row">12.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>U.S.</td>
<td class="narrow-row">15.6%</td>
<td class="narrow-row">9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Germany</td>
<td class="narrow-row">8.5%</td>
<td class="narrow-row">7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>France</td>
<td class="narrow-row">6.2%</td>
<td class="narrow-row">3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Japan</td>
<td class="narrow-row">5.8%</td>
<td class="narrow-row">3.5%</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p class="source"><span>Source: </span><a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD">World Bank</a></p>
<h3>Military power</h3>
<p>There is no simple way to make an accurate assessment of a military's ability to defend a nation, win wars and achieve its objects abroad. Understandably, most nations will want to keep some details about their capabilities secret. To further complicate things, the nature of war is changing, with the prevalence of asymmetrical conflicts, more complex supply chains and an increased emphasis on cyber warfare.</p>
<p>The United States Army remains the most powerful, best-funded and best equipped in the world. Its failures in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq are less indicative of the weakness of the American armed forces, but rather a sign of the nation's declining relative economic might and the subsequent reduction in its ability to impose its will with ease around the globe. The armies of rival nations, such as China, continue to reduce the gap and build forces that could enable them to dominate their regions in the future.</p>
<p>For more details of the budgets and estimated capabilities of various militaries, see the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.globalfirepower.com">Global Fire Power 2022 Report</a>. Lists of military engagements and their results are also available for <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States">The United States</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China">China</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia">Russia</a>.</p>
<!-- <p class="source">
<span>Lists of military engagements and their results are available for </span><a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States">United States</a><span>, </span><a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China">China</a><span>, </span> <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia">Russia</a>
<br>
<span>Details on budget, troops and assets are available on the </span><a target="_blank" href="https://www.globalfirepower.com">Global Fire Power 2022 Report</a>
</p> -->
</div>
<h3 class="section-title">Domestic indicators</h3>
<h3>Purchasing power</h3>
<p>The real wages of the average American haven't seen any growth for a full half-century now, from $25.9 in 1972. Real wages are adjusted for inflation based on the CPI (consumer price index), so taken in isolation, these numbers would only indicate that Americans can afford approximately as many goods and services as they did in 1972. What the CPI doesn't account for, however, is the price of assets, such as houses, or the full cost of some services such as healthcare. Real house prices, real healthcare costs and real university tuition are all increasing at much higher rates than the average wage, which is contributing to falling living standards. This is despite low unemployment and improving productivity. The real (adjusted for inflation) consumer debt held by Americans has also increased from $9.14 trillion in 1999, out of which $5.49 trillion were mortgages, to $20.2 trillion in 2021, out of which $10.9 trillion are mortgages.</p>
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<h5>Housing</h5>
<p>The real price of an average house has grown from $180k in 1964 to $453k in 2021. To put this into perspective, in 1964 an average American would have to work 7,945 hours for a house, whereas today 16,960 hours would be required, which is an increase of 113%.</p>
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<h5>Healthcare</h5>
<p>The real costs of healthcare have increased even more, from $231 billion or $1,245 per person in 1960 to $4.1 trillion or $12,530 per person in 2020. Even though the total costs are rarely paid out of pocket, this still leaves many people unable to afford the care they need and the total, astronomical, costs weighing on American society. The free market approach to healthcare has been a key driving factor behind the surge in costs. Other factors include a sharp increase in obesity from 30.5% in 2000 to 42.4% in 2018 according to the CDC, an older population and a less healthy diet. The number of smokers has, however, fallen considerably.</p>
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<h5>Higher education</h5>
<p>The real cost of tuition has almost quadrupled since the 60s, which pushed many Americans into debt to afford the degrees required in many fields.</p>
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<h3>Inequality</h3>
<p>Giving larger rewards to people who either do difficult jobs with hard to learn skills or to people whose ideas and innovations benefit everyone is a healthy way for a society to ensure its citizens are motivated to continue pursuing such paths and for it to deliver the goods, services and standard of living people want. If, however, inequality becomes so high that large numbers of people cannot afford a decent life, at least relative to their richer counterparts, the consequences will be felt by everyone, and unfortunately, inequality in the United States has been steadily increasing.</p>
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<h3>Demographic pressure</h3>
<p>Like other advanced economies, the U.S. is facing pressure from demographic changes. Life expectancy has increased by 9 years from 1960 to 2019 while the number of births per woman has fallen from 3.65 to 1.7 in the same period. This means that a shrinking workforce needs to support a growing retiree population with higher healthcare costs, which will increase economic pressure on future generations. Nonetheless, the United States is faring slightly better in this area than other developed nations.</p>
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<p class="source"><span>Source: </span><a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND.OL?locations=US">World Bank</a></p>
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<h5>Reasons for falling fertility rates</h5>
<p>As healthcare and child mortality rates improve, it's normal for families to have fewer children. What brought the fertility rate below replacement rate today (and also during the Great Depression) are economic pressures. With rising healthcare, housing and higher education costs, as well as growing debt, many families are unable to afford supporting children. What's more, the number of single-parent families, for whom it's even more difficult to support multiple children, has exploded to 31.2%, the highest rate in the world.</p>
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<h3>National debt</h3>
<p>The national debt stands at $30.1 trillion as of February 2022, and while 21.5% of this is intragovernmental debt, it still translates to more than $90k for every person in the country and more than $240k for every taxpayer.</p>
<p>A certain level of debt is healthy for a nation when used to fund projects that will generate greater returns in the future. In the case of the U.S., however, it's uncertain whether the returns will be able to cover the ever-growing debt without significant costs to future generations via tax hikes, cuts to government programmes, etc.</p>
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<h3>Crime</h3>
<p>Aside from homicide rates, which rose by 21% in 2020, the national crime rate as of 2020 continues to decline from a peak in 1990. Homicides too are lower than they were in 1990, but still rising, and considerably higher compared to other developed nations.</p>
<p>The number of incarcerated people continued to decline in 2020, however, the rate remains high, with the nation having the largest percentage of incarcerated people in the world.</p>
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<h3>Suicide & substance abuse</h3>
<p>The number of suicides continues to rise for both men and women, according to the WHO. This comes amid an epidemic of opioid abuse and rising overdose deaths. The opioid epidemic has been described by Edward A. Shipton from the University of Otago as a "particularly North American phenomenon" stemming from opioids being "progressively prescribed more and more for chronic non-cancer pain, despite inadequate data on their efficacy."</p>
<!-- https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/drug-distributors-agree-finalize-opioid-settlement-2022-02-25/ -->
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<h3>Homelessness</h3>
<p>The national homeless population has been increasing since 2018, but it is lower than it was in 2007. At a state level, some states such as Michigan, Florida, Kentucky or Texas have seen considerable decreases in the homeless population, whereas states like New York, South Dakota, California or Idaho have seen their homeless population rise.</p>
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<h3>Political division</h3>
<p>Americans are becoming increasingly entrenched in their beliefs about the role of government, immigration, climate, social issues, debt, etc. The widening gap between liberals and conservatives doesn't just make it harder to pursue political goals and projects, but it also erodes the nation's sense of community and common purpose.</p>
<div id="division-charts">
<img src="assets/us-decline-assets/political-division-1994.svg">
<img src="assets/us-decline-assets/political-division-2017.svg">
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<p class="source">
<span>Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values.</span>
<br>
<span>Source and more details: </span>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/05/1-partisan-divides-over-political-values-widen/">Pew Research Center</a>
</p>
<h5>Approval ratings</h5>
<p>Presidential approval ratings have also hit an all-time low during Donald Trump's term in office. President Biden's latest approval rating also sits at 41%, however, the average for his presidency so far is higher.</p>
<script>renderChart("YPMLb")</script>
<!-- Consider adding https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078138/trust-government-us-political-ideology/ -->
<h3>Church membership</h3>
<p>Princeton University's <a href="https://futureofchildren.princeton.edu/sites/futureofchildren/files/foc_vol_30_no_1_combined_v6.pdf">How Cultural Factors Shape Economic Outcomes</a> dedicates a chapter to religious institutions and their impact on the economic success and wellbeing of both individuals and communities. The study finds that over 50% of religious institutions offer food related social services, 20% offer health programs and between 10 and 20% offer shelter, clothing and education programs. Participation in these communities makes people more civic-minded, more likely to give to charity, even to secular causes, less likely to commit crimes or take drugs and generally happier.</p>
<p>The decline in membership to religious communities from 71% in 1985 to 47% in 2020 is not in itself a problem. The lack of alternative communities to serve a similar role and provide the same benefits could, however, lead to broader societal issues. Similar drops in membership to religious communities can be observed across other advanced economies.</p>
<p class="source"><span>Source for U.S. membership percentages: </span><a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/341963/church-membership-falls-below-majority-first-time.aspx">Gallup</a></p>
<h3>Infrastructure and geography</h3>
<p>The United States benefits from a number of important geographical advantages. It has the 2nd largest area of arable land and it enjoys a large network of 40,000 km of inland waterways, which make moving goods and resources cheap and efficient. It has access to both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which facilitates global trade and its location makes it relatively safe from attack. It also has the 10th largest oil reserves in the world and ample supplies of metals and minerals.</p>
<p>In order to benefit from these advantages, infrastructure is needed, and American infrastructure has received a rating of C- from the <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2021-IRC-Executive-Summary-1.pdf">American Society of Civil Engineers</a> in 2021. The rating is an improvement from the D+ of previous years, and, at the end of 2021, a $1.2 trillion infrastructure investment plan was passed into law. This means that while America's infrastructure has been neglected for a long time and is in a mediocre state today, there is hope for its future.</p>
<h3 class="section-title positive-margin">Conclusion</h3>
<p>In many ways, the United States is indeed in decline. Its shrinking share of global GDP and its wavering reputation will continue to erode its status as the global hegemon. Falling living standards, demographic pressures and political division at home will make it even harder to change course. All of this, combined with the rising economic, military and cultural power of rival nations, makes a return to a unipolar world order unlikely.</p>
<p>In the face of this reduced ability to project power on the global stage, the U.S. could try to fight for its position and risk finding itself in conflict with its challengers. Alternatively, it could opt to retain regional hegemony, focus on healing its domestic wounds and let its allies shoulder more of the responsibility for protecting their people, their interests and the rules-based international order. Regional powers in Europe and Asia would likely emerge, making it critical to maintain the interdependent relationships of trade and cooperation that enhanced prosperity and bolstered security in the past. In the end, a period of regional rather than global ambitions, adequate consideration for domestic issues and a more balanced and cooperative approach to global affairs would be beneficial to both the United States and the other nations of the world.</p>
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