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Since infections are not directly observed, there's strong posterior correlation between the strength of the infection feedback and the inferred p_ed_visit given infection. Adding additional signals may weaken this problem, but it still seems best to parameterize the infection feedback relative to the infection --> observable rate to break the posterior correlation altogether. If there's concern about interpretability, one can always still place the prior and/or report the posterior on the rate in terms of raw incident infections.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
Since infections are not directly observed, there's strong posterior correlation between the strength of the infection feedback and the inferred
p_ed_visit
given infection. Adding additional signals may weaken this problem, but it still seems best to parameterize the infection feedback relative to the infection --> observable rate to break the posterior correlation altogether. If there's concern about interpretability, one can always still place the prior and/or report the posterior on the rate in terms of raw incident infections.The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: